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新型城镇化建设的减污降碳效应

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新型城镇化是区域经济增长和绿色转型的有力支撑。在经济高质量发展阶段,政府主导的新型城镇化建设减污降碳的政策效果有待验证。该研究选取2004-2020年中国180个地级及以上城市数据,从"污染"和"碳排放"两个维度构建双重差分模型,实证检验新型城镇化建设的减污降碳效应及影响机制。研究发现:①新型城镇化建设存在显著的减污降碳效应,并且呈现逐年递增的特征,该结论在考虑了DID有效性检验和稳健性检验后依然成立。②异质性分析表明,从"区位-特征-规模"三维城市属性看,减污降碳效应在东部城市、非资源型城市、高人力资本城市和规模较大的城市更加显著;分位数回归估计结果显示,新型城镇化的减污降碳效应呈边际递增趋势。③机制分析表明,新型城镇化除了直接对减污降碳存在促进作用,还可以通过推动三次产业结构整体升级、服务业结构升级以及绩效型技术创新而有效促进减污降碳,但投入型技术创新对减污降碳的影响尚不明显。该研究为下一阶段中国区域污染治理提供了新思路,政府应协同推进新型城镇化和减污降碳,同时借助产业结构升级和绩效型技术创新以更加有效的方式释放新型城镇化在区域绿色发展中的红利。
Effect of the reduction of pollution and carbon emissions in China's new urbanization construction
New urbanization plays an important role in China′s regional economic growth and green transformation.In this stage of high-quality economic development,the effect of the government-led new urbanization policy on reducing pollution and carbon emis-sions needs to be verified.Based on the data of 180 prefecture-level cities in China from 2004 to 2020,this paper built a difference-in-differences model from the two dimensions of'pollution'and'carbon emission'to empirically test the effect of the reduction of pollu-tion and carbon emissions in new urbanization and its influencing mechanisms.The results showed that:① The new urbanization con-struction had a significant effect of reducing pollution and carbon emissions,which was characterized by its annual increase.The con-clusion was still robust after validity and robustness tests.② Based on the'location-feature-scale'dimensional urban heterogeneity,the effect of the reduction of pollution and carbon emissions was more significant in the samples of eastern cities,non-resource-based cities,cities with high human capital,and larger cities.Quantile estimation results showed that this effect in the new urbanization con-struction was increasing marginally.③ Mechanism analysis showed that the new urbanization construction could not only directly pro-mote the reduction of pollution and carbon emissions,but also effectively promote this reduction by fostering the overall upgrading of in-dustrial structure,service structure,and performance-based technological innovation.However,the impact of input-based technological innovation on this reduction was not obvious.This article offers new ideas for the next stage of regional pollution control in China.It is suggested that the government should promote the synergy between the new urbanization and the reduction of pollution and carbon emis-sions and release the dividends of the new urbanization in regional green development in a more effective way with the help of industrial structure upgrading and performance-based technological innovation.

new urbanizationreduction of pollution and carbon emissionsdifference-in-differences modelheterogeneity

马彦瑞、刘强

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河南财经政法大学统计与大数据学院,河南 郑州 450046

首都经济贸易大学统计学院,北京 100070

新型城镇化 减污降碳 双重差分模型 异质性

国家社会科学基金项目河南财经政法大学校级研究专题项目河南省哲学社会科学规划项目

20BTJ02722HNCDZT012021BJJ007

2024

中国人口·资源与环境
中国可持续发展研究会 山东省可持续发展中心 中国21世纪议程管理中心 山东师范大学

中国人口·资源与环境

CSTPCDCSSCI北大核心
影响因子:3.126
ISSN:1002-2104
年,卷(期):2024.34(1)
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