摘要
碳捕集利用与封存(CCUS)技术是实现煤电产业低碳转型升级的重要技术路径,也是保障未来电力系统安全稳定运行的关键手段.然而,当前煤电与CCUS技术耦合的发展路径尚不清晰,相应政策机制也存在优化空间.作者量化测算了煤电CCUS应用对于中国能源低碳转型战略的贡献,从时空维度刻画煤电CCUS产业化发展路径,进一步构建适应国情的综合性政策支撑体系框架.研究结果表明,煤电耦合CCUS发展具备技术经济可行性,不仅可以实现能源电力系统深度脱碳,带来显著的煤电行业产出及就业红利,还能有效控制全社会平均碳价格水平.在时间维度上,未来煤电CCUS产业化发展路径应划分为技术研发与示范(2021-2030年)、规模化应用(2030-2040年)、商业化发展(2040-2060年)三个阶段.在空间维度上,技术经济可行且适合集群发展的区域为鄂尔多斯盆地、准噶尔盆地、渤海湾盆地等.通过构建包含"宏观支持、财税金融、市场机制、技术研发示范、管理体系"等在内的综合性政策支撑体系框架,有助于实现煤电CCUS的规模化发展.在煤电CCUS的技术研发与示范阶段,应实行封存补贴、发电小时数补偿、上网电价补贴等更为确定性的激励政策.当项目成本下降到一定程度后,应逐步过渡为碳交易、绿电交易机制等市场化政策工具,并推广绿色金融等机制.基于相关结论,该研究提出了针对性政策建议,以期为推动中国煤电行业实现绿色低碳转型提供参考.
Abstract
Carbon capture,utilization,and storage(CCUS)technology is a vital technical path to realize the low-carbon transformation of the coal power industry as well as a key means to ensure the safe and stable operation of the future power system.However,the cur-rent development path of coupling coal power and CCUS technology is not clear,and there is room for the optimization of the corre-sponding policy mechanism.This paper quantitatively estimates the contribution of CCUS application in the coal power industry to Chi-na′s low-carbon energy transition strategy,describes the future development path of coal power′s CCUS industrialization from the spa-tio-temporal dimension,and further constructs a comprehensive supporting policy system framework.The results show that the develop-ment of coupling coal power and CCUS technology is technically and economically feasible,which can not only achieve deep decarbon-ization of the power system and bring significant output and employment dividends in the coal power industry,but also effectively con-trol the average carbon price level of society.In terms of the temporal dimension,the development path of coal power′s CCUS industrial-ization in the future should be divided into three stages:technology research,development,and demonstration(2021-2030),large-scale application(2030-2040),and commercial development(2040-2060).In terms of the spatial dimension,the technically and eco-nomically feasible regions for cluster development are the Ordos Basin,the Junggar Basin,the Bohai Bay Basin,etc.Constructing a comprehensive policy support system framework incorporating'macro support,fiscal and tax finance,market mechanism,technology re-search,development,and demonstration,as well as management system'is conducive to realizing a large-scale CCUS application in the coal power industry.In the stage of technology research,development,and demonstration of coal power′s CCUS application,more defin-itive incentive policies such as storage subsidies,compensation for power generation hours,and feed-in tariff subsidies should be imple-mented.When the project cost drops to a certain extent,there should be a gradual transition to market-based policy tools such as carbon trading and green electricity trading mechanisms,and green finance should also be promoted.Based on the relevant conclusions,some targeted policy suggestions are put forward to provide references for promoting the green and low-carbon transformation of China′s coal power industry.
基金项目
教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目(23YJC790009)
中国博士后科学基金面上项目(2022M723541)
国家自然科学基金专项项目(72243011)
国家自然科学基金杰出青年基金项目(72125010)
国家自然科学基金面上项目(71974186)
维普
万方数据