Comprehensive effect evaluation of negative emission technologies under the carbon neutrality goal:a numerical simulation analysis based on the N-DSGE model
Global climate change has reached a'climate emergency.'Many countries and regions,including China,have successively announced the carbon neutrality goal and the net zero emission commitment.In addition to the traditional mitigation and adaptation measures to climate change,studies on negative emission technologies and economic feasibility are in full swing in the fields of natural science and climate economics,but there are few studies on the evaluation of the comprehensive effect of negative emission technolo-gies from the perspective of sustainable development economics.Based on the ecological value theory of sustainable development eco-nomics,this paper combined the comprehensive assessment model of climate change with the dynamic general stochastic equilibrium(DSGE)model of macroeconomics and constructed an N-DSGE model including natural ecosystem sectors to comprehensively assess the climate,ecological,economic,and welfare effects of negative emission technologies.The assessment results showed that:① When the traditional emission reduction measures reached their maximum emission reduction potential under the available technical condi-tions,negative emission technologies could be used to achieve net zero emissions or even net negative emissions.② The low-intensity and small-scale implementation of negative emission technologies had positive climate,ecological,and economic effects.However,with the increase in the implementation intensity of negative emission technologies,the climatic effect was enhanced,the economic effect was weakened,and the comprehensive social welfare was significantly reduced.③ The sensitivity analysis proved the robustness of the assessment results and further indicated that the implementation effect of negative emission technologies would be affected by the tradi-tional emission reduction level and natural carbon sink capacity.Based on the evaluation results,China should carefully expand the im-plementation scale of negative emission technologies,strengthen scientific and technological research and development,and reduce technology costs.China should also adopt differentiated development strategies for different negative emission technologies,strengthen the governance of negative emission technology implementation,avoid and minimize the negative impact of these technologies as much as possible,and promote the synergy of sustainable development goals in terms of climate,ecology,and economy.Even if negative emis-sion technologies are deployed,traditional efforts to reduce emissions cannot be relaxed.Efforts should be made to reduce peak carbon emissions while enhancing the carbon sink capacity of natural ecosystems.
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