首页|锂产业链贸易网络结构韧性的演化与评估

锂产业链贸易网络结构韧性的演化与评估

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锂已成为新能源革命的驱动力,国际社会共谋生态文明建设的重要选择,同时也是实现碳中和的基础资源之一,其生产和消费对世界经济有着重要影响,从贸易网络结构韧性的角度出发研究锂产业链,对优化产业布局,锻造强韧产业链具有重要意义.该研究通过构建"度分布-度关联"双变量贸易网络结构韧性演化评价模型,对比分析了2000-2021年全球锂产业链上游、中游和下游的贸易网络结构韧性类型及演化趋势,并针对美国制造业回流等现实背景,对全球锂产业链发展前景进行了展望.结论表明:①就节点度而言,中国、美国和欧洲是全球锂产业链贸易网络中最为活跃的国家及地区,其贯穿了锂全产业链的全球贸易.②就网络结构韧性而言,上游和中游网络有扁平化趋势,其层级性较低;下游网络立体化特征明显.③就网络类型而言,锂产业链上游和中游仍处于同配性网络,下游网络已演化为韧性网络.④就网络结构韧性演化水平而言,锂产业链的网络结构韧性一直处于波动变化状态,综合水平表现为上游韧性<中游韧性<下游韧性.基于上述结论,提出对策建议:完善相关机制建设,打造产业链良好生态;加大资源保障力度,强化资源自给重要性;深化锂产业链的整合重构,实现产业链自主可控;维护多元稳定的国际经济格局和经贸关系,提升产业链国际竞争力,以建成具有更高创新力、更高附加值、更安全可靠的锂产业链.该研究为了解全球锂产业链网络结构韧性格局,保障中国锂产品稳定供需,实现锂产业链自主可控提供有益探索.
Resilience evolution and evaluation of the trade network structure in the lithium industry chain
Lithium has become a driving force in the new energy revolution,an important choice for the international community in pursu-ing ecological civilization,and a crucial factor in achieving carbon neutrality.Its production and consumption have significant global eco-nomic implications.Studying the resilience of the lithium industry chain's trade network structure is of great significance for optimizing the layout of the industry chain and forging a strong and resilient one.This article constructed a two-dimensional matrix-based evaluation mod-el for the evolution of the resilience of the trade network structure of the lithium industry chain.It compared and analyzed the types and evolution trends of trade network structure resilience in the upstream,midstream,and downstream sectors of the lithium industry chain from 2000 to 2021.In light of the backdrop of factors such as the reshoring of manufacturing back to the United States,it offers insights in-to the development prospects of the lithium industry chain.The conclusions drawn were as follows:① In terms of node degree,China,the United States,and Europe were the most active countries and regions in the global trade network of the lithium industry chain.They spanned the global trade of the entire lithium industry chain.② In terms of network structure resilience,the upstream and midstream net-works showed a trend toward flatness with lower hierarchy,while the downstream network exhibited clear three-dimensional characteris-tics.③ In terms of network types,the upstream and midstream segments of the lithium industry chain were still in homophilic networks,while the downstream network had evolved into a resilient network.④ In terms of the evolution level of network structure resilience,the re-silience of the network structure of the lithium industry chain had been fluctuating,with an overall performance of upstream resilience<midstream resilience<downstream resilience.The study also proposes targeted countermeasures and suggestions in the following aspects:improving relevant mechanisms to establish a favorable ecological environment for the industry chain,increasing resource security efforts to strengthen the importance of resource self-sufficiency,deepening the integration and restructuring of the lithium industry chain to achieve autonomous control,and maintaining a diverse and stable international economic landscape as well as economic and trade rela-tions to enhance the international competitiveness of the industry chain.This study aims to provide valuable insights for understanding the risiliense dynamics of the global lithium industry network structure,safeguarding stable supply and demand of lithium products in China,and achieving better autonomy and risk control of the lithium industry chain.

lithium industry chaintrade network structure resiliencetrade network hierarchytrade network matchability

左芝鲤、成金华、郭海湘、詹成

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成都理工大学管理科学学院,四川 成都 610059

中国地质大学(武汉)经济管理学院,湖北 武汉 430074

锂产业链 贸易网络结构韧性 层级性 匹配性

国家自然科学基金重大项目国家自然科学基金面上项目四川省自然科学基金青年基金

719914827207419824NSFSC4417

2024

中国人口·资源与环境
中国可持续发展研究会 山东省可持续发展中心 中国21世纪议程管理中心 山东师范大学

中国人口·资源与环境

CSTPCDCSSCI北大核心
影响因子:3.126
ISSN:1002-2104
年,卷(期):2024.34(2)
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