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气候适应型城市建设试点政策对城市韧性的影响

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建设气候适应型城市是增强城市韧性、提升城市宜居性和可持续发展水平的一项重要措施。基于此,该研究采用2010-2020年中国268个地级及以上城市的面板数据,以2017年气候适应型城市建设试点政策作为准自然实验,运用双重差分模型(DID)考察试点政策对城市韧性的影响,并通过异质性分析、机制分析和空间效应分析从不同视角开展量化评估。结果表明:①气候适应型城市建设试点政策能够有效促进城市韧性提升,这一结论在进行缩尾回归、倾向得分匹配、时间安慰剂、个体安慰剂等一系列稳健性检验之后依然成立。②经济发展异质性和水资源异质性的分析结果显示,气候适应型城市建设试点政策在经济发达地区和水资源禀赋中等地区的效果更为显著。③人力资本培养、韧性基建投入是气候适应型城市建设试点政策促进城市韧性提升的重要渠道。④周边地理邻近城市获批气候适应型城市建设试点对本城市韧性具有促进提升作用,存在正向空间溢出。因此,要进一步深化气候适应型城市试点建设工作,强化制度支撑,总结试点经验,适时开展第二批试点;因地制宜,采取差异化措施推进气候适应型城市建设;多管齐下,进一步强化人力资本、绿色创新、气候韧性基础设施的桥梁纽带作用;放大试点城市政策效应,构建气候适应政策的区域协调发展机制,不断促进气候适应型城市建设迈向高质量发展。
Impact of the pilot policy for constructing climate resilient cities on urban resilience
Constructing climate resilient cities is an important measure to enhance urban resilience,improve urban livability,and pro-mote sustainable development.Based on this,this study conducted a quantitative assessment using panel data from 268 Chinese cities at or above prefecture level from 2010 to 2020,utilized the 2017 pilot policy for constructing climate resilient cities as a quasi experi-ment,and employed a difference-in-differences(DID)model to examine its impact on urban resilience.Furthermore,the study conduct-ed quantitative evaluations from different perspectives,including heterogeneity analysis,mechanism analysis,and spatial effect analy-sis.The results indicated that:① The pilot policy could effectively promote urban resilience,and this conclusion still held after con-ducting a series of robustness tests,including winsorized regression,propensity score matching,time placebo,and individual placebo.② Based on the analysis of economic development heterogeneity and water resource heterogeneity,the effects of the pilot policy were more significant in economically developed regions and regions with moderate water resources endowment.③ The cultivation of human capital and investment in resilient infrastructure were important channels through which the pilot policy promoted urban resilience.④ In geographically neighboring cities,a city's resilience could be promoted by the policy,indicating the existence of a positive spatial spillover effect.Therefore,the government should continue its efforts to build climate resilient cities,increase institutional support,sum-marize the experience from the pilot program,and release the second round of pilot projects at the right time.Also,it is important to se-lect the best strategy to construct climate resilient cities based on the characteristics of each region.Next,a multi-pronged approach should be adopted to further strengthen the effects that human capital,green innovation,and climate resilient infrastructure have as a link.At last,the government should amplify the policy effects of pilot cities,establish a regionally coordinated development mechanism for climate resilient policy,and continue to promote the construction of climate resilient cities towards high-quality development.

climate resilient citiesurban resiliencepilot policydifference-in-differences model

张卓群、姚鸣奇、郑艳

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中国社会科学院大学应用经济学院,北京 102488

中国社会科学院生态文明研究所,北京 100710

中国社会科学院生态文明大数据实验室,北京 100710

中国社会科学院可持续发展研究中心,北京 100732

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气候适应型城市 城市韧性 试点政策 双重差分模型

国家社会科学基金后期资助项目国家社会科学基金中国社科院创新工程项目

21FJYB02618BJY0602022STSA02

2024

中国人口·资源与环境
中国可持续发展研究会 山东省可持续发展中心 中国21世纪议程管理中心 山东师范大学

中国人口·资源与环境

CSTPCDCSSCI北大核心
影响因子:3.126
ISSN:1002-2104
年,卷(期):2024.34(4)
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