Influence mechanism and effect of green power trading on the electricity market
Green power trading has become a concerted global action to address climate change and promote green and low-carbon transformation,and its effect on carbon emission reduction in China's power sector is becoming increasingly pronounced.Exploring the development of China's green power trading market and assessing the impact of green power trading on the electricity market can pro-mote the construction of a new type of power system and help realize the goals of reaching peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality.The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,one of the important economic hubs and urban agglomerations in China,fully launched green power trading in 2021.The study of green power participation in the electricity market in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region can provide experi-ence and policy references for the development of China's green power market.Therefore,this study analyzed the coupling mechanism between the green power trading market and the electricity market,proposed a non-cooperative game model considering the coupling be-tween the two markets as well as a system dynamics model,and analyzed the impact of green power trading on the behavioral decision-making of market players and on the electricity market in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.The results showed that:① The proportion of green power generation affected the behavioral decisions of market players,and increasing the proportion of green power generation increased the profits of green power manufacturers and power grid enterprises and reduced the profits of thermal power plant operators and the cost of power purchases by electricity users.② Without considering the scenario of purchasing electricity from outside,feed-in tariffs for green and thermal power were on a downward and then upward trend;the green power installed capacity under construction and generation capacity were increasing,and the green power feed-in was estimated to account for about 63%of the total power in 2030;and the thermal power installed capacity under construction showed a rising,then falling,then rising trend.However,its rate of increase was smaller than that of green power.③ Considering the scenario of purchasing electricity from outside,the green and thermal feed-in tariffs would decrease;thermal power generation would increase from January 2021 to April 2024,while thermal power generation would decrease from May 2024 to December 2030;green power generation would increase from January 2021 to April 2029 and de-crease slightly from May 2029 to December 2030.The sensitivity analysis of purchased power revealed that increasing purchased power had a weakening inhibitory effect on thermal power in the region and promoted green power development.Based on the above conclu-sions,this study puts forward the following policy recommendations:accelerating the transformation of the power supply structure and promoting the changing roles of green power and thermal power in the power market;adjusting the pricing model of thermal power and promoting the multi-dimensionalization of electricity value;and encouraging inter-provincial and inter-regional green power trading to accelerate the construction of a unified national electricity market.
green power tradingelectricity marketinfluence mechanismsensitivity analysis
万方数据
维普
