Impact of climate change and human activities on ecological sensitivity in China and its improvement paths:based on response surface methodology
Ecological sensitivity is the degree to which an ecosystem responds to external disturbances.Climate change and increasing-ly intensified human activities have individually or interactively influenced regional ecological sensitivity,which has in turn exposed the overall or regional population,resources,and environmental problems.Therefore,clarifying the impact of climate change and hu-man activities on ecological sensitivity and making graded improvements are conducive to enhancing the resilience and sustainable de-velopment of the regional ecological environment.This study focused on 31 provinces in China and constructed a climate change,hu-man activity,and ecological sensitivity indicator system based on meteorological,remote sensing,and statistical data from 2001 to 2020.Response surface methodology(RSM)was used to explore the impact of single factors and interactions between climate change and human activities on ecological sensitivity.Based on the composite sensitivity values that include ecological and climate sensitivity,this study divided the optimization zone,control zone,and governance zone and explored the improvement paths of the governance zone with high comprehensive sensitivity to climate and ecology.The results showed that:① The national ecological sensitivity value fluctu-ated and decreased over time,decreasing by 2.2%from 2001 to 2020.The overall spatial distribution showed a pattern of'high in the west and low in the east,high in the north and low in the south.'The number of provinces with severe sensitivity and above continued to decrease,with a decrease of 7.1%in 2020 compared to 2001.② The main influencing factors varied in different regions.In terms of single factors,the proportion of provinces whose regional ecological sensitivity was affected by economic development,climate change,and population size was 77.4%,67.7%,and 54.8%,respectively.In the analysis of interactions between economic development,climate change,and population size,the percentage of negative interaction effects was 69.6%,indicating that changes in one of most of the influ-encing factors had a reverse effect on the ecological sensitivity effect of another factor.③ To reduce the negative impact of climate change on ecological sensitivity,it is necessary to coordinate economic development or population growth in a targeted manner to ensure sustainable economic and social development within the ecological carrying capacity of places with different natural conditions or devel-opment rates in the governance areas.
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