Evaluation of'water-energy-carbon'system adaptability and characterization of spatial correlation in the Yangtze River Economic Belt
In order to cope with global climate change and the pressure on resources and the environment,it is of great significance to study the complex interactions and adaptability of water resources,energy,and carbon emission(water-energy-carbon)systems to pro-mote the coordinated development of nature,society,and the economy as well as high-quality economic and social development.Based on the theory of complex adaptive systems,this paper defined the implications of the adaptability of the'water-energy-carbon'sys-tems,established a framework for the interactive adaptability of these systems,and constructed a system adaptability evaluation index system with four subsystems:sensitivity,compatibility,stability,and sustainability.Furthermore,this paper utilized a comprehensive synergistic evolutionary model to evaluate the adaptability level of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2010 to 2021,so as to investi-gate the spatial and temporal evolution of the adaptability of the'water-energy-carbon'systems in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.The results showed that:① From the perspective of the influence weight of system adaptability,the subsystem weights were ranked as:sustainability>stability>compatibility>sensitivity.② Considering the adaptability of the indicators,the absolute adaptability of the indicators was greater than the relative adaptability.Regarding the aspect of subsystem adaptability,the sensitivity level showed a sta-ble development trend,the compatibility and stability levels showed an upward trend,and the sustainability level showed a downward trend.From the perspective of inter-provincial adaptability,there was a large gap between the adaptability of the systems in each prov-ince,with an uneven situation of'downstream>midstream>upstream.'In terms of overall adaptability,the adaptability of the Yang-tze River Economic Belt system was at a medium level and showed a'U'-shaped development trend.③ In terms of the adaptive coordi-nation level of subsystems,the degree of sensitivity coordination remained stable,the degree of compatibility and sustainability coordi-nation was increasing,and the degree of stability coordination was decreasing.④ From the perspective of spatial correlation characteris-tics,there was a significant positive global spatial auto-correlation of the adaptability level of the Yangtze River Economic Belt,and with the regional differences gradually narrowing,the spatial aggregation changed from weak to strong and then weak again.Moreover,the adaptability level of the system showed a gradient pattern of'high in the east and low in the west,'with significant provincial differ-ences and strong path dependence.Based on this,this study proposes that we should improve the adaptability of the water-energy-car-bon systems of the Yangtze River Economic Belt in terms of digital construction,institutional mechanisms,system synergy,and regional integration.
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