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"蓝天保卫战"如何影响减污降碳协同度?

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2018年实施的《打赢蓝天保卫战三年行动计划》(以下简称"蓝天保卫战")首次在政策目标中提出"污染物与温室气体协同控制",但鲜有文献探究该政策的减污降碳协同控制效果。该研究基于中国2015-2021年265个地级市数据,首先构建减污降碳协同度指标,其次运用双重差分法考察"蓝天保卫战"对减污降碳协同度的影响及其在不同资源类型城市中的异质性,最后从产业结构、能源结构、运输结构以及用地结构4个维度分析该政策的作用机制。研究结果表明:①"蓝天保卫战"显著提高了"PM2。5-O3""烟粉尘(SD)-CO2"以及"NOX-CO2"的协同度,但对"SO2-CO2"协同度的影响不明显,说明SO2和CO2的减排联动性较低。这一结论也体现在非资源型城市中,而资源型城市仅"PM2。5-O3"协同度显著提升。②能源结构调整是"蓝天保卫战"实现政策效果的主要传导机制,其中非资源型城市的能源结构优化幅度相对更大;而产业结构、运输结构和用地结构并未构成政策提高减污降碳协同度的传导机制,资源型城市的产业结构和运输结构调整进程较慢是可能的原因之一。③扩展性分析表明,"蓝天保卫战"也具有显著的单边减污效应和降碳效应,但单边评估结果难以反映污染物与温室气体的减排同向性。另外,"蓝天保卫战"对空气质量指数和逆温天数也有显著提高,有效推动了环境污染和气候变化的双重治理。基于上述结论提出,应增加减污降碳协同度指标作为环境政策效果评估依据,未来仍应继续加强产业结构、运输结构和用地结构的优化力度,结合城市资源类型出台更有靶向性的蓝天保卫战相关政策。
How does the'Blue Sky Defense War'affect the synergy of pollution control and car-bon reduction?
The Three-year Action Plan to Fight Air Pollution(hereinafter referred to as the'Blue Sky Defense War')implemented in 2018 proposed'synergistic control of pollutants and greenhouse gases'among the policy goals for the first time.However,there is scant literature exploring the synergistic control effect of this policy on pollution control and carbon reduction.Utilizing data from 265 prefec-ture-level cities in China from 2015 to 2021,this study first constructed coordination degree indexes for pollution control and carbon re-duction and then used the difference-in-differences model to examine the impact of the'Blue Sky Defense War'on the synergy of pollu-tion control and carbon reduction,along with its heterogeneity across different types of resource-based cities.Finally,the analysis of pol-icy mechanisms was conducted in four dimensions:industrial structure,energy structure,transportation structure,and land use struc-ture.The results showed that:① The'Blue Sky Defense War'significantly improved the synergy of'PM2.5-O3,''smoke dust(SD)-CO2,'and'NOX-CO2,'but not'SO2-CO2,'indicating a low linkage between SO2 and CO2 emission reductions.This conclusion was al-so reflected in non-resource-based cities,while only the synergy of'PM2.5-O3'significantly improved in resource-based cities.② The primary transmission mechanism for achieving the'Blue Sky Defense War'policy effects was energy structure adjustment,with non-re-source-based cities demonstrating relatively greater energy structure optimization.However,industrial,transportation,and land use structures were not effective transmission mechanisms for enhancing the synergy of pollution control and carbon reduction,and the slow adjustment process of industrial and transportation structures in resource-based cities was a possible cause.③ Extended analysis showed that the'Blue Sky Defense War'also had significant unilateral effects on pollution control and carbon reduction,although such unilateral assessments were complex in reflecting the direction of pollutants and greenhouse gas reduction.In addition,the'Blue Sky Defense War'also significantly improved the air quality index and the number of temperature inversion days,effectively promoting the dual management of environmental pollution and climate change.Based on these findings,it is proposed that the coordination degree in-dexes of pollution control and carbon reduction be incorporated as a basis for environmental policy effect assessments and that industri-al,transportation,and land use structures be further strengthened,with more targeted policies formulated based on the resource types of cities to continue fighting the'Blue sky Defense War.'

Blue Sky Defense Warsynergy of pollution control and carbon reductiondifference-in-differences model

刘娜、高新伟

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中国石油大学(华东)经济管理学院,山东 青岛 266580

蓝天保卫战 减污降碳协同度 双重差分

国家社会科学基金西部项目

23XGL025

2024

中国人口·资源与环境
中国可持续发展研究会 山东省可持续发展中心 中国21世纪议程管理中心 山东师范大学

中国人口·资源与环境

CSTPCDCSSCI北大核心
影响因子:3.126
ISSN:1002-2104
年,卷(期):2024.34(7)