Synergistic optimization of trading decisions and market mechanisms in the 'electricity-carbon-certificate' markets
The implementation of multiple clean and low-carbon policies in the electricity market may lead to redundancies or even contraditions,and the synergy of the power market,carbon trading market,and green certificate market tends to optimize the allocation of power and environmental resources through market mechanisms.However,the synergistic paths of multiple markets to realize the 'dual-carbon' goals are not clear yet.Therefore,this study analyzes the interactions among 'electricity-carbon-certificate' markets from the perspectives of market agent decision-making and market mechanisms.This study constructs a market equilibrium model in-volving buyers and sellers of carbon quotas,thermal power generators,renewable energy power generators,electric power grid enterpris-es,and active and passive users of electricity consumption by using the multi-agent game theory.A mechanism is designed for offsetting and mutual recognition and exchange of environmental equity products,and a synergy model of 'electricity-carbon-certificate' market mechanism is constructed by using the system dynamics theory.The results show that:① Carbon prices are transmitted to market agents through the cost of power generation.Carbon price increases squeeze high-carbon power sources and promotes low-carbon and high-efficiency units.Green certificate trading incentivizes renewable energy power producers to install units,increasing the amount of renewable energy power generation.Under the joint guidance of carbon prices and green certificate prices,positive and negative con-sumption users tend to buy green power.② Compared with the baseline scenario,the introduction of the auction mechanism in the car-bon market increases the cost of carbon emissions,which significantly pulls up the carbon price from 2026 to 2030.The introduction of a penalty mechanism in the green certificate market strengthens the constraints of the consumption weights,which shortens the time for the green certificate price to rise to its maximum value.③ CCER is used as an intermediary to convert excess green certificates into warrants that can be offset in the carbon market,realizing the effective connection between the 'electricity-carbon-certificate' markets.Compared with the baseline scenario and the single policy scenario,the comprehensive scenarios,which consider multiple market re-form measures,are more effective.They enhance the structural transformation of the electricity market by the carbon market and in-crease the competitiveness of renewable electricity.The government should link environmental equity products through carbon account-ing,reduce redundancy in low-carbon policies,and utilize the synergistic development of the 'electricity-carbon-certificate' markets in order to achieve the 'dual-carbon' goals.
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