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能源产能空间集聚的碳排放效应

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能源作为重要生产要素,其空间布局势必对区域碳排放产生影响。在"双碳"目标背景下,随着中国能源生产中心和消费中心逆向分布矛盾日益突出,探究能源产能空间集聚对区域碳排放的影响成为必要。基于2000—2022年中国省级面板数据,采用固定效应模型和中介效应模型,探究了能源产能空间集聚对区域碳排放的影响效应和作用路径,开展了一系列稳健性检验,并基于交互效应模型检验了环境规制和新能源发展水平对能源产能空间集聚碳排放效应的调节作用。结果表明:①全国范围及分区域研究显示,能源产能空间集聚均不利于碳减排。低集聚度区的影响效应最大、集聚度转换区次之、高集聚度区最小。②能源结构、产业结构和能源效率是能源产能空间集聚影响区域碳排放的3条主要路径。③环境规制对能源产能空间集聚碳增效应的调节作用具有显著区域异质性,在全国和高集聚度区对能源产能空间集聚碳增效应具有抑制作用,在集聚度转换区和低集聚度区具有促进作用。④在全国及区域层面,提高新能源发展水平均有助于削弱甚至消除能源产能空间集聚的碳增效应。根据以上研究结论,为保障能源产业高质量发展和"双碳"目标共同推进,一要打造以"电力为核心"的能源互联网,优化化石能源空间布局;二要依托禀赋结构,合理优化能源结构和产业结构;三要充分考虑区域异质性,合理有序提升环境规制强度;四要加快推进新能源技术研发,提升区域新能源装机规模。
Impact of spatial agglomeration of energy production capacity on carbon emissions
As an important production factor,energy's spatial layout is bound to have an impact on regional carbon emissions.In the context of China's goals of reaching peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality,the contradiction between the reverse distribution of energy production centers and consumption centers in China has become increasingly prominent.Therefore,it is necessary to explore the impact of spatial agglomeration of energy production capacity on regional carbon emissions.Based on provincial panel data from China from 2000 to 2022,this study used fixed effects and mediation effects models to explore the impact and pathways of energy pro-duction capacity spatial agglomeration on regional carbon emissions.A series of robustness tests were conducted,and the moderating ef-fects of environmental regulation and new energy development level on the carbon emissions of energy production capacity spatial ag-glomeration were tested using an interaction effect model.The results showed that:① The spatial agglomeration of energy production capacity was not conducive to carbon emission reduction in both the national and subregional studies,with the low agglomeration area having the largest effect,followed by the agglomeration conversion area,and the high agglomeration area having the least effect.② En-ergy efficiency,industrial structure,and energy structure were the three pathways ways that the spatial agglomeration of energy produc-tion capacity affected regional carbon emissions.③ Environmental regulation had a significant regional heterogeneity in regulating the carbon enhancement of energy production capacity spatial agglomeration,with an inhibitory effect on the carbon enhancement of energy production capacity spatial agglomeration in the whole country and in the high agglomeration area,while it had a promoting effect in the agglomeration conversion area and the low agglomeration area.④ At the national and regional levels,increasing the level of develop-ment of new energy helped to reduce or even eliminate the carbon enhancement of the spatial agglomeration of energy production capac-ity.According to the above research conclusions,to ensure the high-quality development of the energy industry and promote the 'dual carbon' goals,it is recommended that:first,an energy Internet with 'electricity as the core' should be built,and the spatial layout of fossil energy optimized.Second,the endowment structure should be relied on,and the energy structure and industrial structure reason-ably optimized.Third,regional heterogeneity should be fully considered,and environmental regulation enhanced in a reasonable and or-derly manner.Fourth,research and development of new energy technologies should be accelerated,and the regional installed scale of new energy increased.

energy production capacityspatial agglomerationcarbon emissionspathway of actionnew energyenvironmental regulation

于向宇、方冉、吴步尘、李跃

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山东工商学院工商管理学院,山东烟台 264005

山东工商学院管理科学与工程学院,山东烟台 264005

中国矿业大学经济管理学院,江苏徐州 221116

山东工商学院煤炭经济研究院,山东烟台 264005

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能源产能 空间集聚 碳排放 作用路径 新能源 环境规制

2024

中国人口·资源与环境
中国可持续发展研究会 山东省可持续发展中心 中国21世纪议程管理中心 山东师范大学

中国人口·资源与环境

CSTPCDCSSCI北大核心
影响因子:3.126
ISSN:1002-2104
年,卷(期):2024.34(10)