Path selection for China's hydrogen industry development under the goal of carbon neutrality
Hydrogen energy plays a pivotal role in the transition to a new energy system and the achievement of the goal of carbon neu-trality in China,particularly for the zero-carbon transformation of industries such as steel,cement,chemical,aviation,and shipping,which are difficult to completely electrify.The development of the hydrogen energy industry has been incorporated into the national strategy.However,due to the variety of hydrogen production technologies,the economic costs and carbon emissions associated with these technologies vary significantly.Therefore,determining a path that takes into account the effectiveness of carbon emission reduc-tion and economic costs requires in-depth research.This study constructed an analytical framework for evaluating carbon emission re-duction cost efficiency based on different hydrogen production technologies.Methods such as levelized cost,life cycle assessment,and learning curve analysis were used to compare and evaluate the carbon emission reduction cost efficiency of major hydrogen production technologies from different time dimensions.Various scenarios were set for key parameters (baseline,moderate policy,and carbon neu-trality),and the carbon emission reduction cost efficiency of the hydrogen energy industry development strategy was analyzed.The study aims to provide insights and an analysis framework for the formulation,evaluation,and revision of hydrogen energy industry develop-ment strategies at national and local levels that take into account the cost effectiveness of hydrogen production and the effectiveness of carbon emission reduction.The results showed that:① At the current stage (2021—2023),the carbon emission reduction cost efficien-cy of hydrogen production from coal is the highest,followed by hydrogen production from power curtailment+AE.② In the near future (2024—2030),the cost efficiency of carbon emission reduction of hydrogen production from power curtailment+AE would gradually ex-ceed that of hydrogen production from coal.Although the cost efficiency of carbon emission reduction of hydrogen production from pho-tovoltaic+AE,wind power+AE,and hydropower+AE would gradually improve,there would remain a significant gap between them and hydrogen production from coal.③ In the medium term (2031—2045),the carbon emission reduction cost efficiency of photovoltaic+AE,and wind power+AE would substantially improve and gradually approach the efficiency of coal-derived hydrogen.④ In the long term (2046—2060),the carbon emission reduction cost efficiency of hydrogen production from renewable energy sources would compre-hensively surpass that of hydrogen production from fossil energy sources,with green hydrogen dominating the hydrogen energy industry.It is suggested to utilize the analytical framework for carbon emission reduction cost efficiency to improve the development plan of hy-drogen energy industry and outline a development roadmap and timetable;to enhance the carbon pricing mechanism,thereby improving the cost efficiency and market competitiveness of carbon emission reductions for green hydrogen by increasing the carbon emission costs for energy users;to boost policy support for utilizing curtailed wind and solar energy as well as water electrolysis for hydrogen pro-duction,promoting the full utilization of wind and solar resources and the development of hydrogen energy industry;and to leverage the carbon emission reduction cost efficiency advantages of gray hydrogen by rationally and systematically developing the gray hydrogen in-dustry in the short term,while actively guiding and supporting the gray hydrogen industry to adopt carbon reduction technology,thus ac-celerating the transition from gray hydrogen to green hydrogen.
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