Prediction of Supply and Demand Trends for Normal Students in 2035——An Analysis Based on System Dynamics Models
The paper aims to simulate and analyze the supply and demand relationship of normal students from 2004 to 2035 by constructing a system dy-namics simulation model.It is found that the education and training industry had played a certain role in stabilizing the employment demand of normal students when the supply exceeded demand and the demand for basic education teachers continued to decline.After the release of the"Double Reduction"Policy,if the supply scale of normal students continues to maintain the past growth trend,maintain the current situation unchanged,or refer to the decreasing trend of the demand side year by year,the situation of oversupply of normal university students'employment will be extremely worsened and unsustainable;If the supply scale of existing teacher education students is halved and the demand side decrea-ses year by year,it is possible to control the imbalanced employment supply and demand relationship of teacher education students within a certain range.The findings suggest that the education statistics department may consider further dis-closing the number of teachers of different disciplines in high schools for refer-ence;The education administrative department should strengthen the macro plan-ning of the supply and demand relationship for teachers;Teacher training institu-tions and parents of candidates should be more rational in facing the future of the teaching industry.
Normal StudentsSupply and Demand TrendsSystem Dynam-icsNew Situation of Population Development
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
