Review,Rethink and the Latest Progress of Output Gap Theory after Financial Crisis
Traditional output gap theory suffered great challenges during global financial crisis.Neither varieties of gap estimation methods succeeded in predicting the crisis,nor the macro policy retained ef-fectiveness in crisis rescue.The failure of traditional output gap theory can be partly attributed to some problems that have existed before the crisis,such as the defects of gap estimation methods,the smoot-her trend of Phillips curve,and the continuous declination of global equilibrium rate,and partly to some changes that have taken place during the crisis,including the influence of financial factors on out-put gap estimation,the weakening of inflation targeting system,and the limitation of interest rate ad-justment.Faced with the problems in the traditional output gap research,we need to look back to both Keynesian and structuralism policy framework,so as to find a way to tackle the continuous negative output gap and slower potential growth after the crisis.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
