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社会科学预测及其检验问题剖析

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受俄狄浦斯效应的影响,在社会科学预测检验问题上,传统的"认识论路线和真理标准"经常遭遇检验尺度流变难题,以至于有人质疑"实践是检验真理的唯一标准"原理的普适性,以及社会科学预测检验的可行性。社会科学预测的实践检验应当以"价值论路线和功效标准"为主导,以"认识论路线和真理标准"为辅助,实现对社会科学预测的双重检验和综合性评判。这两条检验路线和标准都是实践检验理念的具体贯彻和实现方式,其间构成了互补统一关系,也是对"实践是检验真理的唯一标准"原理的丰富和发展,其中涉及的冲突与不协调等深层次或具体问题还有待进一步探究和阐明。
An Analysis of the Problems Regarding Prediction and Testing in Social Sciences
Influenced by the Oedipus effect,the traditional epistemological approach and criteria of truth are often confronted by the challenges of changing testing scales in regard to the problems of prediction and testing in social sciences.Some even question the universality of the principle that"practice is the sole testing criterion to find truth"as well as the feasibility of prediction and testing in social sciences.The practical test of prediction should be led by the approach of axiology and cri-teria of efficacy,assisted by the epistemological approach and criteria of truth,so as to carry out double testing and comprehensive evaluation of prediction in social sciences.These two complemen-tary testing approaches and criteria reflect the concept of testing in practice and are also enriched by the principle holding that practice is the sole testing criterion to find truth.Such specific problems as conflicts and failure in coordination occurring in the process need to be further addressed.

Philosophy of Social SciencesPrediction and testing in social sciencesOedipus effectCriteria of efficacyComplementary and unified relationship

王伯鲁

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中国人民大学哲学院

社会科学哲学 社会科学预测检验 俄狄浦斯效应 功效标准 互补统一关系

2025

中国人民大学学报
中国人民大学

中国人民大学学报

北大核心
影响因子:1.887
ISSN:1000-5420
年,卷(期):2025.39(1)