首页|从霸权更替到"多极制衡"——16世纪以来的海上格局演变

从霸权更替到"多极制衡"——16世纪以来的海上格局演变

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16世纪至2000年前后,单极主导和霸权更替曾是海上格局的主要样态,而这种样态是否会延续已成为当前最重大的海上战略问题.研究表明,军事技术的发展和国际规范的变迁对于海上格局的演变有着决定性作用,在2000年之前,无论是军事技术还是国际规范,总体上都更有利于海上权力的集中而非分散;而进入21世纪,这种趋势被逆转,军事技术、国际规范正在改变传统的海上格局样态,世界各大国的海上权力都在受到不同程度地推回、制衡或稀释.在21世纪的第二个十年,"海上多极"的趋势已经非常明显.在这一变局下,海上主导国和崛起国都需要超越传统的权力范式,进行相应的战略调适和政策调整.
From Hegemonic Alternation to"Multipolar Checks and Balances":The Evolution of the Maritime Landscape since the 16th Century
From the 16th century to around 2000,unipolar dominance and the alternation of hegemonies were the main maritime patterns.Today,whether this pattern will last is the most important maritime strategic issue.Our research concludes that the development of military technology and changes in international norms are playing a decisive role in the transition of maritime power.Before 2000,military technology and international norms contributed to the centralization rather than the decentralization of maritime power as a whole.In the 21st century,the trend has been reversed.The development of military technology and international norms are changing traditional maritime patterns,and the maritime power of the world's great powers has been checked,contained and diluted to varying extents.In the 2010s,maritime multi-polarity has become evident During this major change,both the dominant maritime powers and the rising powers need to implement strategic shifts and policy adjustments that go beyond the traditional power paradigm.

胡波

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北京大学国际关系学院(北京100871)

海上格局 霸权更替 均势制衡 军事技术 国际规范

2023

中国社会科学
中国社会科学院

中国社会科学

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:5.644
ISSN:1002-4921
年,卷(期):2023.(2)
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