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倾向:因果观念重建

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主流因果理论将因果关系诉诸事件或事态之间的条件关系,于是,因果判断就成为根据条件关系满足与否给出"是"或"否"的二元回答.然而,执着于拆分或细化条件的尝试遭遇了瓶颈:条件关系假定了因果关系是通过列出一组因素而被确定的,但在现实情形中,原因可能并不符合任何条件或其组合.倾向论采取了新的思路:拒绝把因果关系还原为离散事物之间的依赖关系.原因倾向于导致其结果,倾向呈现出连续的状态,而非全有或全无.作为一种内在的能力,倾向性生产结果的奥秘可以借助机制得到揭示,它表现为:初始触发启动因果过程,相互显现持续扩增,从开端到终点稳定渐进.在这种模式下,寻找因果就表现为一种动态的进程,不仅考虑对象本身并处理单个时间点变量的因果,而且考虑变量最近时空邻域的变化模式.由此说明:为什么即使特定条件已经明确,结果也不必然发生;为什么即使没有恒常联结,某因素仍有可能成为导致某个结果的原因.
Disposition:The Concept of Causation Reconstructed
Mainstream theories of causation appeal to conditional relations between events or states of affairs,so that causal judgments become binary"yes"or"no"answers based on the fulfillment or non-fulfillment of conditional relations.However,attempts to break down or refine the conditions have hit a bottleneck:conditional relations assume that causality is determined by listing a set of factors,but in real situations the cause may not satisfy any of the conditions or combinations thereof.Dispositionalism takes a new approach:it refuses to reduce causality to dependence between discrete things.Causes tend to lead to their effects,and disposition presents a continuum rather than an all-or-nothing state.As an intrinsic capacity,the mystery of disposition producing outcomes can be revealed through a mechanism that manifests itself in an initial trigger that initiates the causal process,a continuous amplification of reciprocal manifestations,and a steady progression from the beginning to the end.In this model,the search for causation is expressed as a dynamic process that takes into account not only the object itself and deals with the causality of the variable at a single point in time,but also takes into account the pattern of change in the variable's nearest spatial and temporal neighborhood.This explains why outcomes do not necessarily occur even when specific conditions are fulfilled,and why a factor may be the cause of an outcome even in the absence of a constant conjunction.

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中国政法大学哲学系(北京102249)

因果 条件 倾向 连续

2023

中国社会科学
中国社会科学院

中国社会科学

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:5.644
ISSN:1002-4921
年,卷(期):2023.(9)
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