Accurately predicting the time and location of the initial freeze-up of the Yellow River is the key to for-mulate scientific ice prevention plans.On the basis of summarizing the initial freeze-up location of the Inner Mon-golia reach,this study summarizes the relationship between the initial freeze-up section and the river channel char-acteristics such as river bends,bank narrows,bridges,and midstream beaches.It quantitatively reveals bend co-efficients and bank narrows at the initial freeze-up section,providing a basis for analyzing and predicting the initial freeze-up location.On the basis of summarizing influencing factors of the initial freeze-up date,the initial freeze-up date analysis model was constructed based on Random Forest and BP-DEMATEL models respectively,and the weights of the main factors were obtained to apply to the forecast of the initial freeze-up date.The results showed that the forecast results of the key factors selected by the Random Forest model were completely consistent with the measured values,and its application effect in the initial freeze-up analysis was better than that of the BP-DEMA-TEL model.
关键词
黄河冰情/内蒙河段/参数辨识/首封/预报
Key words
ice condition of the Yellow River/the Inner Mongolia reach/parameter identification/the initial freezing-up/ice forecasting
维普
万方数据