中国水利水电科学研究院学报(中英文)2024,Vol.22Issue(3) :229-238,249.DOI:10.13244/j.cnki.jiwhr.20230196

黄河上游降水变化分析

Analysis of precipitation changes in the upper basin of the Yellow River

左俊康 张婷 王芳
中国水利水电科学研究院学报(中英文)2024,Vol.22Issue(3) :229-238,249.DOI:10.13244/j.cnki.jiwhr.20230196

黄河上游降水变化分析

Analysis of precipitation changes in the upper basin of the Yellow River

左俊康 1张婷 1王芳1
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作者信息

  • 1. 中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京 100038
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摘要

黄河上游是黄河流域重要的水源涵养区,径流占流域多年平均(1956-2000年)总径流的62%,降水变化不仅是水源的主要影响因素,也关系到涵养能力的变化.本文利用黄河上游43个气象站1960-2021年逐日降水系列数据,基于小波分析划分周期,采用Mann-Kendall检验法、距平法、频率曲线法等对上游区降水变化进行分析,结果表明:(1)黄河上游降水可划分出1963-1981年、1981-1999年、1999-2018年三个明显的周期;(2)1960-2021年年降水量以4.9 mm/10a的趋势增加,三个周期时段内年降水量的倾向率分别为-0.9 mm/10a,-1.0 mm/10a,46mm/10a;(3)1960-2021年年降水量距平百分率在-15%~15%的正常年份占比74%,距平百分率在-30%~-15%的轻旱年份和15%~30%的轻涝年份分别占比15%和8%;距平百分率在30%~40%的中涝年份占3%,旱涝年份基本发生在1963-1981年、1999-2018年两个周期;(4)三个周期时段日降水量具有差异的主要是频率小于10%的降水,且随海拔变化有差异,表现为1999-2018年玛沁站25~45.4 mm/d降水量比以往增强,1999-2018年临夏站20~50 mm/d降水量比以往增强,1963-1981年乌审召站50~65 mm/d降水量比以往增强.

Abstract

The upper basin of the Yellow River is an important water source conservation area in the Yellow River Basin,with natural runoff accounting for 62%of the annual average(1956-2000)total runoff.Precipitation chan-ges are not only the main influencing factor on water sources,but also related to changes in conservation capacity.Based on wavelet analysis,this paper uses a series of daily precipitation data from 43 meteorological stations in the upper basin of the Yellow River from 1960 to 2021 to analyze the precipitation changes in the upper basin,u-sing Mann Kendall test,anomaly method,frequency curve method,etc.The results show that:(1)the precipi-tation in the upper basin of the Yellow River can be divided into three distinct periods:1963 to 1981,1981 to 1999,and 1999 to 2018;(2)The annual precipitation from 1960 to 2021 shows an increasing trend of 4.9 mm/10 a,and the trend rates of annual precipitation during the three periods are-0.9 mm/10 a,-1.0 mm/10 a,and 46 mm/10 a,respectively;(3)From 1960 to 2021,74%of normal years have an annual precipitation a-nomaly percentage of-15%to 15%,while light drought years with an anomaly percentage of-30%to-15%and light flood years with an anomaly percentage of 15%to 30%account for 15%and 8%,respectively;3%of flood prone years have a percentage of anomaly between 30%and 40%.Drought and flood years generally occur in two periods:1963-1981 and 1999-2018;(4)The main difference in daily precipitation during the three periods is the frequency of precipitation less than 10%,which varies with altitude.The precipitation at Maqin Station from 1999 to 2018 increases at a rate of 25-45.4 mm/d compared to the past.The precipitation at Linxia Station from 1999 to 2018 increases at a rate of 20-50 mm/d.From 1963 to 1981,the precipitation at Wushenzhao Station in-creases at a rate of 50-65 mm/d compared to the past.

关键词

黄河上游/降水/周期/趋势/特征/频率

Key words

the upper reaches of the Yellow River/precipitation/periodicity/trend/characteristic/frequency

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出版年

2024
中国水利水电科学研究院学报(中英文)
中国水利水电科学研究院

中国水利水电科学研究院学报(中英文)

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.523
ISSN:2097-096X
参考文献量24
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