Numerical simulation and predictive analysis of shallow groundwater in overexploited areas
Analysis of groundwater changes in overexploited areas is of great significance for sustainable manage-ment of regional water resources.This paper takes the shallow groundwater overexploited area in Datong Basin as the research object,analyzes the aquifer structure and the recharge,runoff,and discharge conditions of groundw-ater,and clarifies that the confined aquifer is the main region affecting groundwater changes.Based on GMS and MODFLOW software,a two-dimensional non-steady flow model of isotropic heterogeneous confined aquifer in Da-tong Basin is established.The model is validated using measured groundwater flow field,and groundwater level prediction simulations and analyses are conducted under different future scenario conditions.The results show that the average groundwater exploitation volume in Datong Basin from 2010 to 2019(608.61 million m3)exceeds the av-erage groundwater recharge volume from 2001 to 2016(562.54 million m3),indicating a significant trend of groundwater level decline.If the groundwater exploitation volume decreases to 85％of the 2019 level,the average groundwater level can rebound by 11.6 meters by 2035,with a recovery rate of approximately 0.68 meters per year.If future water source replacement projects are comprehensively considered,the groundwater level can significantly rebound by 2035,with a recovery rate of up to 1.4 meters per year.The research results of this paper can provide scientific basis for groundwater management in Datong Basin,and also have certain reference value for water re-sources management and assessment in similar groundwater overexploited areas in northern China.
万方数据
维普
