Research on the joint probability of rainstorm and tidal level based on the Copula function
With the aggravation of the climate change and human activities as well as the acceleration of urbaniza-tion,urban pluvial flooding has become an increasingly prominent issue in China.For example,the city of Yang-zhou,located in the north of the Yangtze River,is affected by the Yangtze River floods and tidal waves,which hinder the rapid discharge of urban pluvial floods when facing extreme meteorological events like heavy rainstorms,thus increasing the risk of urban pluvial flooding.As a result,research on urban pluvial flooding disasters has be-come an important focus in this area.This study utilizes Copula function to construct a joint probability distribution function of the maximum three-day rainfall in the study area and the average three-day maximum tidal level in the Yangtze River.The encounter probability of different combinations of rainfall and tidal waves is analyzed,and the joint risk probability and co-occurrence risk probability are obtained.The results show that the Copula function fits the joint probability distribution of rainfall and tidal waves well.The fitting results can not only provide theoretical support and scientific basis for solving the problem of the inadequate drainage routes for pluvial floods in Yihan dur-ing high water levels of the Yangtze River,but also serve as a reference for the flood control decision-making in other tidal river sections.
rain tide encounteredge distribution functionCopula Functionthe maximum entropy principlerisk rate
万方数据
维普
