基于Budyko假设的昌马河流域径流变化归因分析
Attribution analysis of runoff variations in the Changma River Basin based on the Budyko hypothesis
尹振良 1朱睿 2方春爽 2杨华庆 2陈泽霞3
作者信息
- 1. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院 干旱区生态安全与可持续发展重点实验室/国家冰川冻土沙漠科学数据中心,甘肃兰州 730000;山东科技大学安全与环境工程学院,山东青岛 266000
- 2. 兰州交通大学测绘与地理信息学院/地理国情监测技术应用国家地方联合工程研究中心/甘肃省地理国情监测工程实验室,甘肃兰州 730000
- 3. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院 干旱区生态安全与可持续发展重点实验室/国家冰川冻土沙漠科学数据中心,甘肃兰州 730000
- 折叠
摘要
昌马河是疏勒河的主要干流段,其径流变化对气候变化和下垫面变化极其敏感.以昌马河流域为研究对象,运用Budyko假设对径流变化进行归因分析.结果表明:(1)径流、气候和下垫面因子均具有明显的突变特征,气候特征总体上呈暖湿化趋势.(2)径流对降水量变化的敏感性最高,其次为下垫面和潜在蒸散发;气候变化和下垫面变化分别贡献径流量变化的37.31％和62.79％,下垫面变化是径流变化的主要原因,降水增加对径流变化起到次要作用.(3)叶面积指数是与径流变化最相关的影响因子,其次为降水量和土壤水分;气候变化引起下垫面变化能够在更大程度上解释径流变化.
Abstract
The high-quality economic development and the security of the oasis ecosystem in the middle and lower reaches of the Shule River Basin are intimately connected to the runoff emerging from the upper reaches.The Changma River,as the principal channel of the Shule River,exhibits extreme sensitivity to variations in cli-mate and underlying surface changes.This study,focusing on the Changma River Basin and employing the Bu-dyko hypothesis for the attribution analysis of runoff variations,arrives at the following primary conclusions:(1)Runoff,climate,and underlying surface factors all display pronounced characteristics of abrupt change,with the overall climate trend leaning towards warmer and more humid conditions.(2)Runoff exhibits the high-est sensitivity to changes in precipitation,followed by underlying surface changes and potential evapotranspira-tion.In 1965-2015,the runoff in the Changma River demonstrated a significant increasing trend,with climate change(precipitation and potential evapotranspiration)and changes in the underlying surface contributing 37.31％and 62.79％to the runoff quantity changes,respectively.Changes in the underlying surface emerge as the predominant cause of runoff variations,with an increase in precipitation playing a secondary role.(3)The leaf area index is the factor most correlated with changes in runoff,followed by precipitation and soil water con-tent.The change of underlying surface factors can explain the changes in runoff to a greater extent.
关键词
昌马河流域/径流变化/气候变化/Budyko假设Key words
Changma River Basin/runoff change/climate change/Budyko hypothesis引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据