Attribution analysis of runoff variations in the Changma River Basin based on the Budyko hypothesis
The high-quality economic development and the security of the oasis ecosystem in the middle and lower reaches of the Shule River Basin are intimately connected to the runoff emerging from the upper reaches.The Changma River,as the principal channel of the Shule River,exhibits extreme sensitivity to variations in cli-mate and underlying surface changes.This study,focusing on the Changma River Basin and employing the Bu-dyko hypothesis for the attribution analysis of runoff variations,arrives at the following primary conclusions:(1)Runoff,climate,and underlying surface factors all display pronounced characteristics of abrupt change,with the overall climate trend leaning towards warmer and more humid conditions.(2)Runoff exhibits the high-est sensitivity to changes in precipitation,followed by underlying surface changes and potential evapotranspira-tion.In 1965-2015,the runoff in the Changma River demonstrated a significant increasing trend,with climate change(precipitation and potential evapotranspiration)and changes in the underlying surface contributing 37.31％and 62.79％to the runoff quantity changes,respectively.Changes in the underlying surface emerge as the predominant cause of runoff variations,with an increase in precipitation playing a secondary role.(3)The leaf area index is the factor most correlated with changes in runoff,followed by precipitation and soil water con-tent.The change of underlying surface factors can explain the changes in runoff to a greater extent.
Changma River Basinrunoff changeclimate changeBudyko hypothesis
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NSTL
万方数据
