首页|中国涉旅自然灾害事件的时空分异与动态演变

中国涉旅自然灾害事件的时空分异与动态演变

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自然灾害是目的地旅游业高质量发展的重要影响因素.本研究以2011-2019年4 102起中国涉旅自然灾害事件为数据源,运用集中度指数、空间自相关、标准差椭圆、马尔科夫链等方法,从地理学时空视角对其时空分异及动态演变过程进行测度与分析.研究表明:(1)中国涉旅自然灾害事件具有类型多样、分布集中特征,台风、大雾、暴雨、冰雪、雷电、大风等是高发灾害事件类型.(2)涉旅自然灾害事件季节性显著,每年7-9月为事件高发月份,在空间上具有明显的区域集聚效应,华东、华南及西南地区为灾害事件高发区域.(3)不同类型涉旅自然灾害事件具有较强的空间异质性和区域集聚性,台风、崩塌、滑坡以及海浪等涉旅自然灾害事件局部空间关联特征明显.(4)动态演变上,中国涉旅自然灾害事件重心轨迹变化较大,总体分布格局受东南以及西南地区灾害事件规模影响显著,空间格局呈现"东南-西北"走向以及"西南-东北"走向的演变过程;马尔科夫链转移概率矩阵表明,涉旅自然灾害事件的动态演变具有一定的空间锁定效应和风险传递效应.本研究有助于弥补以往对涉旅自然灾害时空动态分析的不足,为旅游地自然灾害的防范与治理提供理论支撑与实践依据.
Spatio-temporal differentiation and dynamic evolution of tourism-related natural disasters in China
Natural disasters are important influencing factors for the high-quality development of destination tourism.This paper takes 4,102 tourism-related natural disasters in China from 2011 to 2019 as data source and uses the concentration index,spatial autocorrelation,standard deviation ellipse,and Markov chain to analyze the spatial differentiation and dynamic evolution process from the geographic spatio-temporal perspective.The study shows that:(1)China's tourism-related natural disasters are characterized by concentrated distribution and a range of types,including typhoons,fog,rainstorms,snow and ice,thunder and lightning,and strong winds that pose high-frequency disaster events.(2)Tourism-related natural disasters exhibit seasonal characteristics in time,with July-September being the high-incidence month with a obvious regional agglomeration effect in space.The high-incidence areas of disasters are found in East China,South China,and Southwest China.(3)Spatial heterogeneity and regional agglomeration are observed for different types of tourism-related natural disasters,and the local spatial correlation characteristics of disasters such as typhoons,collapses,landslides,and waves are obvious.(4)The trajectory of the centre of gravity of China's tourism-related natural disasters has changed considerably,and the overall distribution pattern is significantly impacted by the scale of disasters in the southeast and southwest regions.Moreover,the spatial pattern presents the"southeast-northwest"and"southwest-northeast"direction.The Markov chain transition probability matrix shows that the dynamic evolution of tourism-related natural disasters has a spatial locking effect and risk transfer effect.This study addresses the existing gaps in the analysis of the temporal and spatial dynamics of tourism-related natural disasters,providing theoretical support and a practical basis for preventing and managing natural disasters in tourist destinations.

tourism-related natural disasterstourism safetyspatio-temporal differentiationdynamic evolutionMarkov chain

章坤、谢朝武、余军

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华侨大学旅游学院,泉州 362021

中国旅游研究院旅游安全研究基地,泉州 362021

涉旅自然灾害事件 旅游安全 时空分异 动态演变 马尔科夫链

国家自然科学基金

41971182

2023

中国生态旅游

中国生态旅游

CSCD
ISSN:
年,卷(期):2023.13(5)
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