Individual dynamics and local heterogeneity provide a microscopic view of the epidemic spreading

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外文摘要：The COVID-19 pandemic has caused severe global disasters,highlighting the importance of understanding the details and trends of epidemic transmission in order to introduce efficient intervention measures.While the widely used determin-istic compartmental models have qualitatively presented continuous"analytical"insight and captured some transmission features,their treatment usually lacks spatiotemporal variation.Here,we propose a stochastic individual dynamical(SID)model to mimic the random and heterogeneous nature of epidemic propagation.The SID model provides a unifying frame-work for representing the spatiotemporal variations of epidemic development by tracking the movements of each individual.Using this model,we reproduce the infection curves for COVID-19 cases in different areas globally and find the local dy-namics and heterogeneity at the individual level that affect the disease outbreak.The macroscopic trend of virus spreading is clearly illustrated from the microscopic perspective,enabling a quantitative assessment of different interventions.Seem-ingly,this model is also applicable to studying stochastic processes at the"meter scale",e.g.,human society's collective dynamics.

外文关键词：

Brownian motionepidemic spreadingheterogeneity

作者：

朱友源、沈瑞哲、董昊、王炜

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作者单位：

Kuang Yarning Honors School,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China

Collaborative Innovation Center of Advanced Microstructures,National Laboratory of Solid State Microstructure,School of Physics,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093,China

Institute for Brain Sciences,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China

State Key Laboratory of Analytical Chemistry for Life Science,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China

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基金：

国家自然科学基金Frontiers Science Center for Critical Earth Material Cycling of Nanjing University

项目编号：

22273034

出版年：

2024

DOI：

10.1088/1674-1056/ad1a90

中国物理B(英文版)