Dynamic Analysis and Forecast of the Outpatient Volume of Stomatology in a General Hospital
Objective To analyze the outpatient volume of stomatology department in Dongying People's Hospital from 2012 to 2020,and find out the law of its change and development.Methods The outpatient volume of department of stomatology,Dongying People's Hospital from 2012 to 2020 was selected,and the annual change and trend of outpatient volume were predicted by descriptive analysis and trend from 2012 to 2020,and the seasonal index and prediction of outpatient volume were analyzed.Results From 2012 to 2020,the number of outpatient visits in the department of stomatology showed a steady growth,with a total increase of 21 275,a cumulative increase of 190.15%,and an average annual growth rate of 7.40%.Although there was a decline in 2020 due to special circumstances,the remaining years showed varying degrees of growth.By analyzing the seasonal index,the outpatient volume fluctuates obviously in each quarter.The third quarter was usually the peak season,and its average seasonal index was higher than those of other quarters.After using the trend and seasonal adjustment methods,the error between the forecast and the actual value in each quarter of 2020 was within the acceptable range,reflecting that the model forecast had a certain accuracy.Through the linear trend forecasting method,the future outpatient volume was projected,and it was expected that the quarterly outpatient volume would remain high until 2025.Conclusion The outpatient amount in stomatology department varies with the seasons with obvious regularity.Hospital administrators and department directors should allocate medical resources scientifically and reasonably according to the changing and developing law of outpatient volume.
general hospitaloral outpatient volumeseasonal variationdynamic analysismedical resourcespredict
万方数据
维普
