The Impact of Population Ageing on the Sustainable Development of China's Basic Medical Insurance Fund Balance
Objective:To prevent the possible effects of population aging and find out countermeasures to ensure the sustainable development of basic medical insurance fund balances.Methods:Using system dynamics,by coupling the three subsystems of basic medical insurance fund income,basic medical insurance fund expenditure,and population size,a causal relationship diagram and stock flow diagram are drawn to construct a system dynamics model,and Vensim Software is used for simulation.Results:Under the predicted natural conditions,the balance of the basic medical insurance fund will show a trend of first increasing and then decreasing from 2023 to 2030.Adjusting and combining the three variables of retirement strategy,outpatient visits,and participation rate into four solutions,among which simultaneously implementing the prediction plan of delaying retirement,expanding basic medical insurance coverage,and strengthening elderly health management can significantly reduce the decline of the basic medical insurance fund.Conclusion:The aging population will be detrimental to the sustainable development of the surplus of the basic medical insurance fund.Based on this,the following suggestions are proposed:implement appropriate delayed retirement policies to increase the income of the basic medical insurance fund;further expand the coverage of insured individuals to enhance the risk resistance of the basic medical insurance fund;strengthen the health management of the elderly to control the excessively rapid growth of the basic medical insurance fund expenditures.
basic medical insurancefund balancesustainable developmentpopulation agingsystem dynamics
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