Research on the Regional Aging Disparities and Long-Term Care Insurance Payment Pressure in China
Objective:In the context of the aging trend of China's population,it aims to analyze the trend of elderly disabled population growth in various regions and calculate the potential payment pressure of long-term care insurance for the disabled population,thereby providing policy implications for China's long-term care insurance system.Methods:A model for estimating the amount of expenditure on long-term care insurance fund was constructed,using the population age structure of each province in China from 2025 to 2060 obtained from the random forest model,and combining multi-source data such as the disability rate of the elderly population and the care cost of disabled elderly people to predict the number of elderly disabled people and the payment amount of long-term care insurance in each province in the future.Results:The aging trend in China will continue to intensify and exhibit a significant structural feature.The peak of the aging ratio in northeastern regions such as Inner Mongolia,Heilongjiang,Jilin,and Liaoning will come earliest,while the number of elderly people with disabilities in provinces with large populations such as Shandong,Sichuan,and Henan are relatively larger.Guangdong will have the largest number of disabled elderly people by 2055.Conclusion:It is suggested that the long-term care insurance system should be steadily advanced,with national-level support for the construction of the system in Northeast China and populous provinces.
aging populationdisabled elderly populationrandom forest modellong-term care insurance
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
