首页|1990—2021年我国哮喘疾病负担变化及趋势分析

1990—2021年我国哮喘疾病负担变化及趋势分析

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目的:分析我国哮喘疾病负担及其变化趋势,为相关防治政策制定调整提供参考.方法:利用2021年全球疾病负担数据库开展我国哮喘流行、死亡及疾病负担分析,利用年龄-时期-队列模型分析疾病负担的年龄-时期-队列效应,利用时间序列模型对2030年我国哮喘疾病负担进行趋势分析.结果:1990—2021年,我国哮喘疾病负担呈下降趋势;年龄-时期-队列模型显示哮喘患病率在5~9岁年龄组达到峰值,时期效应呈下降趋势,1915—1919年和2010—2014年出生队列患病风险最大;预计2030年我国哮喘流行率、死亡率及伤残调整寿命年率均呈下降趋势.结论:我国哮喘疾病负担呈下降趋势,但防控形势仍然严峻,治疗药物可及和可负担是确保哮喘防控效果的重要手段,要构建"促防诊控治康"服务体系,为哮喘患者实施全方位健康照护.
Analysis of the Disease Burden and Trend of Asthma in China from 1990 to 2021
Objective:To analyze the disease burden of asthma in China and its changing trends,providing references for the formulation and adjustment of relevant prevention and control policies. Methods:Using the data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 (GBD 2021) study,it conducted an analysis of asthma prevalence,mortality,and disease burden. An age period cohort (APC) model was used to analyze the age period cohort effect of disease burden,and a time series model was used to analyze the asthma disease burden trend in China by 2030. Results:From 1990 to 2021,the burden of asthma in China showed a decreasing trend. The APC model showed that the incidence of asthma reaches its peak in the 5-9 age group,with a decreasing trend in the period effect. The birth cohort 1915-1919 group and 2010-2014 group had the highest risk of asthma. It is expected that the prevalence,mortality,and DALYs rates of asthma in China will all show a downward trend by 2030. Conclusion:The burden of asthma in China is showing a downward trend,but the prevention and control situation is still severe. The accessibility and affordability of treatment drugs are important means to ensure the effectiveness of asthma prevention and control. It needs to build a"promote prevention,diagnosis,control,and treatment"service system to provide comprehensive health care for asthma patients.

disease burdenasthmaAge-Period-Cohort (APC) Model

柏海蓉、柴培培、赵燕、万泉

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华北理工大学经济管理学院 河北 唐山 063210

国家卫生健康委卫生发展研究中心 北京 100044

华北理工大学卫生健康政策与管理研究中心 河北 唐山 063210

疾病负担 哮喘 年龄-时期-队列模型

2024

中国卫生经济
中国卫生经济学会,卫生部卫生经济研究所

中国卫生经济

CSTPCDCHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.524
ISSN:1003-0743
年,卷(期):2024.43(12)