Establishment and verification of a nomogram for predicting postoperative disease-free survival in patients with gallbladder cancer
Objective This paper aims to establish a prediction model for postoperative disease-free survival of patients with gallbladder cancer by nomogram.Methods Retrospective analysis was used to collect 205 patients with gallbladder cancer from the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University Medical School from January 2018 to January 2023 as the modeling group,and 55 patients from Zhejiang Cancer Hospital were selected as the validation group.Independent influencing factors were deter-mined by Cox univariate analysis and multivariate analysis.R language was used to establish a nomogram based on each inde-pendent factor,and C-index and calibration curve were used to evaluate the accuracy of the model.The performance of the model was evaluated by comparing the decision curve(DCA)with the AJCC 8th TNM staging system.Results Multivariate analysis showed that T stage,N stage,differentiation degree(Grade),fibrinogen/albumin(FAR)and carbohydrate antigen 19-9(CA19-9)were independent risk factors for disease-free survival(P＜0.05).Verification of nomogram show that in-ternal verification C index was 0.780,and external verification C index was 0.717.The calibration curve showed a good agree-ment with the actual observation results in predicting the probability of 1-year and 3-year disease-free survival.Decision making curves(DCA)showed that this model had better clinical predictive power than the AJCC 8th TNM staging system.Con-clusion In this study,a more intuitive and accurate model was established to predict the disease-free survival of gallbladder cancer patients,which is helpful for clinical decision-making.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
