Risk factors analysis and prediction model establishment of biliary tract infection in patients with hilar cholangiocarcinoma after endoscopic metal stent implantation
Objective To explore the risk factors of biliary tract infection in patients with hilar cholangiocarcinoma after endoscopic metal stent implantation,and to establish Nomogram prediction model.Methods A total of 164 patients with HCCA who underwent EMBE in our hospital were retrospectively analyzed.They were divided into infection group(n=38)and non infection group(n=126)according to whether biliary tract infection occurred.Univariate analysis was first performed,then multivariate logistic analysis was performed on the variables with P＜0.05,and nomogram prediction model was constructed.The performance of the model was evaluated by C index,receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC),calibration curve and DCA curve.Results A total of 38 patients had biliary tract infection,with a incidence rate of 23.2％.Multivariate analysis showed that age,preoperative jaundice days,obstruction length,and diabetes history were independent risk factors for biliary tract infection(P＜0.05),and KPS score was an independent protective factor(P＜0.05).In Nomogram prediction model,the area under the ROC curve was 0.885(95％CI 0.825-0.929).Conclusion Age,preoperative jaundice days,obstruction length and diabetes history are independent risk factors for biliary tract infection.KPS score is an independent protective factor,and the nomogram prediction model has good differentiation and accuracy.
endoscopic metal stent implantationhilar cholangiocarcinomabiliary tract infectionrisk factorsprediction model
万方数据
维普
