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中国对RCEP成员国蔬菜出口的影响因素及潜力研究

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中国是蔬菜净出口大国,RCEP是中国蔬菜出口第一大市场,准确把握影响中国蔬菜出口到RCEP成员国的因素以及出口潜力对中国蔬菜产业发展意义重大.在分析中国对RCEP成员国蔬菜出口贸易现状的基础上,依据2006-2021年中国对RCEP成员国蔬菜出口贸易数据,运用贸易引力模型研究了中国蔬菜出口的影响因素及贸易潜力.研究结果表明,中国对RCEP蔬菜出口总体呈上升的趋势,对越南蔬菜出口额最高,出口品种以辛辣味蔬菜和未加工的干蔬菜为主.中国农业经济发展水平的提高、签订双边FTA,以及RCEP成员国的经济规模、相对农业经济规模、贸易开放度的提升都会显著促进中国对RCEP成员国蔬菜出口,贸易经济距离因素则会阻碍中国的蔬菜出口.从贸易潜力来看,RCEP发达国家主要是贸易潜力巨大型,RCEP发展中国家主要是贸易潜力开拓型和潜力再造型.基于此,提出了要优化蔬菜出口产品结构、充分利用RCEP协议和优化蔬菜出口市场结构来促进中国对RCEP蔬菜出口贸易进一步发展的对策建议.
Research on the influencing factors and potential of China's vegetable exports to RCEP member countries
China is a net exporter of vegetables,and RCEP is the largest market for Chinese vegetable exports.Accurately grasping the factors and export potential that affect Chinese vegetable exports to RCEP member countries is of great sig-nificance for the development of China's vegetable industry.On the basis of analyzing the current situation of China's veg-etable export trade to RCEP member countries,the authors use the trade gravity model to study the influencing factors and trade potential of China's vegetable exports based on the vegetable export trade data from 2006 to 2021.The research results indicate that China's overall export of RCEP vegetables is generally on the rise,with the highest export value to Vietnam.The export varieties are mainly spicy vegetables and unprocessed dry vegetables.The improvement of China's agricultural economic development level,the signing of bilateral FTAs,as well as the increase in the economic scale,rela-tive agricultural economic scale,and trade openness of RCEP member countries,will significantly promote China's vege-table exports to RCEP member countries.Trade economic distance factors will hinder China's vegetable exports.From the perspective of trade potential,RCEP developed countries mainly have huge trade potential,while RCEP developing countries mainly focus on expanding and reshaping their trade potential.Based on this,it is proposed to optimize the struc-ture of vegetable export products,fully utilize the RCEP agreement,and optimize the market structure of vegetable ex-ports to promote the further development of China's vegetable export trade with RCEP.

RCEPVegetable exportsInfluencing factorsPotential

郑纯纯、李俊

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青岛农业大学经济管理学院 山东青岛 266109

青岛农业大学乡村产业发展研究中心 山东青岛 266109

RCEP 蔬菜出口 影响因素 潜力

山东省社会科学规划研究项目青岛市社会科学基金规划项目青岛农业大学高层次人才科研项目

23CSDJ21QDSKL20011961117706

2024

中国瓜菜
中国农业科学院郑州果树研究所

中国瓜菜

北大核心
影响因子:0.452
ISSN:1673-2871
年,卷(期):2024.37(4)
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