The Cyclical Fluctuations of China's Pig Prices: Empirical Analysis and Policy Thinking
The trends and cycles were extracted from the time series of pig prices,,piglet prices,and pork prices by means of H-P filter method,which covered the period from January 2000 to September 2014.We combined the trends and the pig/grain price ratios to analysize the cyclical characteristics of pig prices.The main research findings are as follows:The price fluctuation cycles of pig prices,,piglet prices,and pork prices mostly lasts more than 40 months.The durations of price falling are generally longer than the durations of price rising.The pig/grain price ratios have directional function that could help to identify prices cycles.External shocks (such as animal epidemics,financial crisis) caused sharp cyclical fluctuations of pig prices.The pig prices are recently falling in choppy trading.The emergency plan that could be used to prevent excessive prices falling has some effects in short term.We had conducted the policy thinking of building long-term mechanism to tame pig prices sharp fluctuations,which based on the findings of empirical analysis and new national policies,such as "New Land Policy" and financial reform.
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
维普
