Risk prediction model for vascular aging based on psychological behavior and physical exercise
Objective To establish a multi-factor prediction model for vascular aging based on psy-chological behavior and physical exercise using nomogram and structural equation method.Methods A to-tal of 701 inpatients or physical examination patients who underwent carotid ultrasound examination in the Af-filiated Hospital of Qingdao University from October 2021 to March 2023 were selected by cross-sectional method.The subjects were randomly divided into training queue(n-492)and verification queue(n=209)according to the ratio of 7:3.The psychological and behavioral factors,lifestyle,demography and accompan-ying diseases data were collected.Multi-factor binary Logistic regression method in SPSS 25.0 software was used to screen independent influencing factors of vascular aging,R 4.2.2 software was used to build a nomo-gram prediction model of vascular aging,and the ROC curve,calibration chart and decision curve analysis were used to evaluate the nomogram,and AMOS software was used to build a structural equation model of vascular aging.Results Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that type A behavior(B=1.757,OR(95％CI)=5.790(2.750-12.210),P＜0.001),physical exercise(B=-3.019,OR(95％CI)=0.050(0.020-0.100),P＜0.001),high-fat diet(B=0.679,OR(95％CI)=1.970(1.350-2.880),P＜0.001),sleep quality(B=-1.451,OR(95％CI)=0.230(0.120-0.460),P＜0.001),tea drinking habits(B=-2.349,OR(95％CI)=0.100(0.050-0.200),P＜0.001),age(B=0.061,OR(95％CI)=1.060(1.020-1.110),P=0.005),sex(B=-1.263,OR(95％CI)=0.280(0.140-0.570),P＜0.001),hyperlipidemia(B=0.679,OR(95％CI)=1.970(1.350-2.880),P＜0.001)and diabetes(B=0.838,OR(95％CI)=2.310(1.140-4.700),P=0.021)were independent influencing factors of vascular aging.The nomogram model showed that type A behavior,physical exercise,high-fat diet,sleep quality,tea drinking habits,age,sex,hyperlipidemia and diabetes were independent influencing factors of vascular aging.Advanced age,type A behavior,hyperlipidemia,diabetes and the score of high-fat diet were risk factors for vascular aging,while better sleep quality,tea drinking habit and the score of physical exercise were protective factors for vascular aging.Men were more prone to vascular aging than women.Structural equation model showed that type A be-havior had the strongest direct positive effect on vascular aging(the effect coefficient=0.197,P＜0.01),and physical exercise had the strongest direct negative effect on vascular aging(the effect coefficient=-0.452,P＜0.01),which could indirectly affect vascular aging through various factors.Conclusions The nomogram model shows the independent influencing factors of vascular aging and has certain predictive value.Structural equation model shows that many factors such as psychological behavior and lifestyle can directly or indirectly affect the occurrence of vascular aging,among which type A behavior and physical exercise have more exten-sive effects.
Vascular agingType A behavior patternPhysical exerciseMultifactorPrediction model
万方数据
维普
