Prediction model based on multivariate logistic regression method for adverse events during the recovery period after general anesthesia in elderly patients
Objective To establish a prediction model based on multivariate logistic regression method for adverse events during the recovery period after general anesthesia in elderly patients.Method Clinical data of 356 elderly patients undergoing general anesthesia surgery in Xuanwu Hospital Capital Medical University from September 2021 to September 2022 were retrospectively analyzed.According to whether adverse events occurred during the postoperative recovery period,the subjects were divided into no adverse event group(without adverse events,274 cases)and adverse event group(with adverse events,82 cases).The clinical data in the two groups were compared and analyzed.To analyze the independent factors inf luencing the occurrence of adverse events during the recovery period after general anesthesia in elderly patients.To establish a nomogram model for the occurrence of adverse events during the recovery period after general anesthesia in elderly patients.To analyze the value of the nomogram model in predicting the occurrence of adverse events after general anesthesia in elderly patients.Result Adverse events occurred in 82 elderly patients during the recovery period after general anesthesia,with the incidence of 23.0%.The proportion of age≥70 years old,anesthesia time≥120 min,operation time≥140 min,alanine transaminase≥80 U/L,serum creatinine≥264 μmol/L,C-reactive protein≥15 mg/L,NLR≥5 in the adverse event group were higher than those in the no adverse event group,and the differences were statistically significant(P＜0.05).Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age≥70 years old,anesthesia time≥120 min,operation time≥140 min,serum creatinine≥264 μmol/L,C-reactive protein≥15 mg/L and NLR≥5 were independent risk factors for adverse events during the recovery period after general anesthesia in elderly patients(P＜0.05).With age,anesthesia time,operation time,serum creatinine,C-reactive protein and NLR as independent variables,a nomogram model of adverse events occurring during the recovery period after general anesthesia in elderly patients was constructed by R software.ROC curve analysis results showed that,the area under the curve of adverse events during the recovery period after general anesthesia in elderly patients predicted by the nomogram model was 0.787,with the sensitivity of 74.4%,and the specificity of 70.8%.Conclusion The incidence of adverse events during the recovery period was still high in elderly patients after general anesthesia.Age≥70 years old,anesthesia time≥120 min,operation time≥140 min,serum creatinine≥264 μmol/L,C-reactive protein≥15 mg/L and NLR≥5 were all independent risk factors for adverse events during the recovery period after general anesthesia.The nomogram model has good predictive value for the occurrence of adverse events during the recovery period after general anesthesia in elderly patients.
ElderGeneral anesthesiaAdverse eventsRisk factorsNomogram model
万方数据
维普
