Spatial-temporal Evolution and Prediction Simulation of Carbon Storage Based on PLUS-InVEST Model
The rapid advance of urbanization leads to ecological space shrinking,landscape fragmentation and other problems,which greatly reduces the carbon sink capacity of urban ecosystems.In this context,it is of great significance to explore the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics,future trends and spatial correlation of urban carbon storage with landscape patterns.Based on the land use data from 2000 to 2020 in Shenzhen City,the spatial-temporal evolution of land use and carbon storage was analyzed by coupled PLUS-InVEST model.The changes of land use and carbon storage were predicted and simulated under different scenarios.Finally,the bivariate spatial autocorrelation was combined to analyze the correlation and the spatial agglomeration characteristics between carbon storage and landscape pattern.The results showed that:1)Carbon storage in Shenzhen showed a downward trend from 2000 to 2020,and the conversion of ecological land such as cultivated land and forest land to construction land was the root cause of the decline of carbon storage in Shenzhen.2)Carbon storage and ecological land area will decrease significantly under the three scenarios in the future,and carbon storage will decrease least under the ecological priority scenario.3)In highly urbanized areas,carbon storage is positively correlated with ecological area and landscape fragmentation,and the spatial distribution characteristics of carbon storage,ecological space area,and landscape fragmentation index are closely related to the degree of exploitation of human activities.The research results can provide basis and reference for realizing low-carbon and high-quality development in land shortage cities.
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