Impact of the Simplified Renewal Rules on Negotiated Drug Prices and Continuous Supply:Phenomenon and Feasible Solutions
Objective:The paper explores whether there is a special phenomenon under the background of the 2022 National Reimbursement Drug List(NRDL)'s simplified renewal rule,wherein some drugs may continuously trigger successive price reductions to the extent of eventually exiting the NRDL.Methods:This paper constructs a demand-price elasticity model,combined with numerical simulations of NRDL negotiation and renewal rules,to discuss the case of multiple rounds of simplified renewals and validate whether the simplified renewal rules affect the sustainable supply of drugs.Finally,this paper conducts a mathematical analysis of the applicable conditions for feasible solutions.Results:Under the 2022 simplified renewal rules,there is a class of drugs in the market that,when the initial price reduction during NRDL negotiation and its elasticity meet certain conditions,will fall into the dilemma of infinite price reduction.This phenomenon may be due to companies'misjudgment of drug demand or a surge in drug sales after entering the NRDL,breaking the linear relationship between quantity and price.Reducing the number of renewals and renegotiations can reduce the likelihood of such occurrences.Conclusion:The 2023 simplified renewal rules have,to some extent,avoided the occurrence of such phenomena.This paper suggests that subsequent policy modifications can change the stepped price reduction standard to a continuous one.
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