The Influencing Factors of Price Reduction in National Volume-Based Procurement——Based on Logistic Regression
Objective:The paper analyzes the factors affecting whether a drug enterprise wins a bid or not and price reduction in national volume-based procurement(NVBP),thereby exploring the effect of NVBP and the recommendations for policy implementation.Methods:We select the varieties from the 2nd to 5th and 7th to 9th rounds of NVBP for analysis,and take whether an enterprise wins a bid or not and price reduction as dependent variables.Logistic regression model was used to analyze the impact on the two dependent variables above.Results:Original drug enterprises have lower probability of bid success but higher probability of major price reduction.Self-produced active pharmaceutical ingredient(API)enterprises have higher probabilities of winning bids and major price reduction than others.As the number of enterprise's bid-winning varieties in NVBP,the number of potential competitors,and the number of potential self-produced API competitors increase,the probability of major price reduction increases.Conclusions:NVBP can promote the occurrence of the"patent cliff",highlight the competitive advantage of self-produced API enterprises,and contribute to the rationalization of the drug pricing mechanism.
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