Research on Demand Prediction and Influencing Factors of Long-Term Care Insurance for Residents in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region
Objective:The paper attempts to predict the demand for long-term care insurance among residents in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,analyze the influencing factors of long-term care insurance demand among urban and rural residents,and provide a reference for the comprehensive promotion of the long-term care insurance system.Method:The GM(1,1)grey correlation prediction model was used to predict the long-term care insurance demand of Xinjiang residents.Based on the grey correlation analysis model,the impact of different influencing factors on the long-term care insurance demand of urban and rural residents in Xinjiang was empirically analyzed.Results:From 2024 to 2030,the demand for long-term care insurance among residents in Xinjiang is expected to climb from 76100 people to 91700 people.The elderly dependency ratio and the proportion of people participating in basic medical insurance are important non-economic factors that affect the long-term care insurance demands of Xinjiang residents(correlation value ≥ 0.56).Interest rates and urban consumer price index(correlation value ≥ 0.75),as well as rural residents'pension and annual per capita disposable income(correlation value ≥ 0.7)are the main economic factors affecting the long-term care insurance demand of urban and rural residents.Conclusion:From 2024 to 2030,the demand for long-term care insurance among residents in Xinjiang has significantly increased,but the long-term care insurance policies need to be improved.It is recommended to coordinate and plan long-term care insurance policies,scientifically and reasonably design financing and payment mechanisms for long-term care insurance,and continuously meet the growing demands for long-term care insurance among residents.
万方数据
维普
