1979-2020年中国油菜全要素生产率的动态演变与收敛性
Dynamic evolution and convergence of total factor productivity of rape in China during 1979-2020
刘福星 1王彩丽 1唐晶 1冯中朝1
作者信息
- 1. 华中农业大学经济管理学院,湖北 武汉,430070;湖北农村发展研究中心,湖北 武汉,430070
- 折叠
摘要
厘清改革开放以来中国油菜全要素生产率发展状况,是提高油菜综合生产能力的逻辑起点.本文基于1979-2020年间11个油菜主产省份的投入产出相关数据,在使用Global Malmquist指数测算全要素生产率基础上,分别使用Kernel密度估计、δ收敛和β收敛,分析其动态演进及收敛性.研究结果表明:从时序特征来看,改革开放以来中国油菜全要素生产率在剧烈波动中实现一定增长,表现为技术诱导型增长模式,而技术效率对其促进作用并不显著;从动态演进来看,油菜全要素生产率增长的地区差异不断缩小.从收敛性来看,油菜全要素生产率的δ值整体呈波动下降态势,自2012年始基本稳定在0.01以下,出现明显收敛趋势,说明存在δ收敛.油菜全要素生产率存在绝对β收敛和条件β收敛,将空间效应引入收敛模型后,其收敛性依旧显著,且存在正向空间溢出效应.为进一步提高油菜全要素生产率,本文提出推进国家油菜产业技术体系建设、实施区域化发展战略和促进区域协调发展的对策建议.
Abstract
Clarifying the development of rape's total factor productivity in China since the Reform and Open-ing-up is a logical starting point to improve the comprehensive production capacity of rape.Based on the input-out-put related data of 11 rape main producing provinces during 1979-2020,this paper analyzes the dynamic evolution and convergence based on the total factor productivity measured by using Global Malmquist index,using kernel den-sity estimation,δ convergence and β convergence,respectively.The results show that,according to the time-series characteristics,China's total factor productivity of rape has achieved certain growth in the midst of dramatic fluctua-tions since the Reform and Opening-up,demonstrating a technology-induced growth pattern,whereas technical effi-ciency does not contribute significantly to it.From the dynamic evolution,the geographical variations in the rise of rape's total factor productivity keep getting smaller.From the perspective of convergence,the overall δ value of total factor productivity of rape is fluctuating and decreasing,and has essentially stabilized around 0.01 since 2012,dis-playing an clear convergence tendency,confirming the existence of δ convergence.The absolute β convergence and conditional β convergence of rape's total factor productivity exist.The convergence model's convergence is still sig-nificant after accounting for the spatial effect,and there is a favorable spatial spillover effect.It suggests counter-measures to support the development of a national rapeseed industrial technology system,execute a regionalized de-velopment plan,and encourage coordinated regional development in order to further increase the total factor produc-tivity of rapeseed.
关键词
油菜全要素生产率/动态演变/Kernel密度估计/δ收敛/β收敛Key words
total factor productivity of rape/dynamic evolution/kernel density estimation/δ convergence/β convergence引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家现代农业(油菜)产业技术体系专项经费资助项目(CARS-0012)
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据