基于捕获-再捕获法的广东省四城市毒品滥用规模评估
Evaluation of drug abuse scale in four cities of Guangdong Province based on capture-recapture method
黄尚 1王玮1
作者信息
- 1. 中国刑事警察学院禁毒与治安学院,沈阳 110035;辽宁省禁毒技术重点实验室,沈阳 110035
- 折叠
摘要
目的 采用三来源捕获-再捕获法评估广东省抽样城市毒品滥用规模.方法 随机选取广东省粤东、粤西、粤北和珠三角地区各一个城市,以抽样城市强制隔离戒毒所、社区戒毒机构和美沙酮维持治疗机构的戒毒人员为研究对象,采用三来源捕获-再捕获法对广东省及抽样城市毒品滥用人群规模进行估计.结果 绝大多数抽样城市甲基苯丙胺的隐性人群规模较大,海洛因的隐性人群规模较小,氯胺酮的隐性人群规模较大.结论 当前广东省合成毒品滥用具有一定规模,三来源捕获-再捕获法可以较准确的摸清广东省及抽样城市吸毒人员的底数,具有良好应用价值.
Abstract
Objective To evaluate the scale of drug abuse in sampled cities in Guangdong Province by three source capture recapture method.Methods Randomly select one city from eastern,western,northern and the Pearl River Delta regions of Guangdong Province.We used the three source capture recapture method to estimate the size of drug abusers in Guangdong Province and sampled cities,with drug rehabilitation personnel from compulsory isolation treatment centers,community drug rehabilitation institutions,and methadone maintenance treatment institutions as the research subjects.Results The most of sampled cities have a larger hidden population of methamphetamine,a smaller hidden population of heroin and a larger hidden population of ketamine.Conclusion At present,the abuse of synthetic drugs in Guangdong Province has a certain scale.The three source capture recapture method can accurately find out the base number of drug users in Guangdong Province and sampled cities,which has good application value.
关键词
捕获-再捕获法/毒品滥用/规模评估Key words
capture-recapture method/drug abuse/scale evaluation引用本文复制引用
基金项目
广东省公安厅课题(GZGP19-PZ10-FC080)
国家社会科学基金(17BGL215)
公安部软科学计划项目(2022LL58)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据