Common Malignant Tumors in the Reproductive System of Chinese Women:Disease Burden During 1990-2019 and Prediction of Future Trend
Objective To analyze the trends of disease burden of cervical cancer,uterine cancer,and ovarian cancer among Chinese women from 1990 to 2019,and to provide a basis for formulating precise preven-tion and control measures in China.Methods The global disease burden data in 2019 were used to describe the changes in indicators such as incidence,mortality,years of life lost due to premature mortality(YLL),years lived with disability(YLD),and disability-adjusted life year(DALY)of cervical,uterine,and ovarian canc-ers in China from 1990 to 2019.Furthermore,the Bayesian age-period-cohort model was adopted to predict the incidence and mortality of the cancers from 2020 to 2030.Results From 1990 to 2019,the incidence rates and mortality of cervical,uterine,and ovarian cancers in Chinese women showed an upward trend,and the age-standardized incidence rate of ovarian cancer increased the most(0.78% ).In 2019,the incidence of cervical cancer and uterine cancer concentrated in the women of 55-59 years old,and ovarian cancer mainly occurred in the women of 70-74 years old.The DALY,YLL,and YLD of cervical,uterine,and ovarian cancers all pres-ented varying degrees of growth at all ages.The Bayesian age-period-cohort model predicted that from 2020 to 2030,the incidence and mortality of cervical cancer in China showed a decreasing trend,while those of uterine cancer and ovarian cancer showed an increasing trend.There was no significant change in the age with high inci-dence of the three cancers.Conclusions From 1990 to 2019,the overall disease burden of cervical,uterine,and ovarian cancers in China increased,while the disease burden of cervical cancer decreased after 2020.It is recom-mended that the efforts should be doubled for the prevention and control of cervical,uterine,and ovarian cancers.
cervical canceruterine cancerovarian cancerburden of diseasepredictive analysis
万方数据
维普
