老年认知障碍患者伴发抑郁风险的列线图预测模型构建和验证
Construction and validation of a nomogram model for the risk of depression in older people with cognitive impairment
陶晴谅 1时晶2
作者信息
- 1. 北京中医药大学东直门医院,北京 100700
- 2. 北京中医药大学东直门医院脑病科三区,北京 100010
- 折叠
摘要
目的 构建老年认知障碍患者伴发抑郁风险的预测模型.方法 采用全国老年人健康影响因素跟踪调查(Chi-nese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey,CLHLS)2018年数据,选取训练集2 070例样本,测试集888例样本,根据老年认知障碍患者是否伴发抑郁将其分为抑郁组[流行病学中心简明抑郁量表(Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale,CES-D)≥10分,训练集317例,测试集155例]和无抑郁组(CES-D＜10分,训练集1 753例,测试集733例),采用一般资料、生活习惯以及病史进行调查.根据Lasso回归和二元Logistic回归分析的结果建构老年认知障碍患者伴发抑郁风险的预测模型.结果 年龄、同住情况、吸烟史、睡眠情况、户外活动、阅读书报、电视广播、白内障病史是影响老年认知障碍患者伴发抑郁风险的独立因素.基于此8项因素建立的列线图模型曲线下面积为0.807.结论 本研究构建的老年认知障碍患者伴发抑郁风险的预测模型具有较高的准确度和区分度,可用于识别老年认知障碍患者伴发抑郁的风险.
Abstract
Objective To construct a predictive model of depression risk in older people with cognitive impairment.Methods Using cross-sectional data from 2018 wave of the Chinese longitudinal healthy longevity survey(CLHLS),2070 samples in the training set and 888 samples in the test set were selected,and the older people with cognitive impairment were categorized into the depressed group[Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale(CES-D)≥10,317 in the training set,155 in the test set]and the non-depressed group(CES-D＜10,1 753 in the training set,733 in the test set)according to whether they were depressed or not.Demographic characteristics,living habits,and medical history were investigated.A predictive model for the risk of depression in older people with cognitive impairment was constructed based on the results of Lasso regression and binary logistic regression analysis.Results Age,cohabitation,smoking history,sleep,outdoor activities,reading books and newspapers,television and radio,and history of cataracts were independent risk factors for depression in elderly patients with cognitive impairment.The area under the curve(AUC)of the nomogram model based on these 8 factors was 0.807.Conclusions The predictive model constructed in this study to construct the risk of depression in elderly patients with cognitive impairment has a high degree of accuracy and specificity,which can be used to identify the risk of depression in older people with cognitive impairment.
关键词
老年认知障碍/抑郁/列线图/预测模型Key words
Cognitive impairment/Depression/Nomogram/Predictive model引用本文复制引用
基金项目
中医学与中药学科创新引智基地(2023-JYB-KYPT-04)
北京中医药大学"解码中医"协同攻关项目(BZY-JMZY-2022-002)
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据