Construction and application verification of nomogram prediction model for ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome in IVF-ET treatment
Objective To explore the influencing factors of ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome(OHSS)caused by in vitro fertilization-embryo transfer(IVF-ET)in infertile patients,and to construct and verify the risk prediction model of OHSS after IVF-ET treatment.Methods The clinical data of 150 infertile patients treated by IVF-ET in Affiliated Hospital of Youjiang Ethnic Medical College from January 2020 to December 2022 were included.Patients with OHSS after IVF-ET treatment were included in the occurrence group,and patients without OHSS were included in the non-occurrence group.The clinical data of patients were collected and analyzed retrospectively.The independent influencing factors of OHSS after IVF-ET treatment were determined by univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analysis,and the nomogram prediction model was constructed by using the determined independent influencing factors.The effectiveness of the nomogram prediction model was evaluated from three dimensions:C-index,receiver's working curve(ROC)and calibration curve.Results Among the 150 infertile patients receiving IVF-ET treatment,15 cases developed OHSS,accounting for 10%,while 135 cases did not occur,accounting for 90.00%.Logistic regression analysis showed that polycystic ovary syndrome,hCG trigger injection of 10 000 IU and total gonadotropin consumption were risk factors for OHSS in infertile patients after IVF-ET treatment(OR>1,P<0.05),while basal follicle stimulating hormone level was a protective factor(OR<1,P<0.05).The ROC curve was drawn with certain independent influencing factors,the curve results showed that the AUC values of polycystic ovary syndrome,hCG trigger injection of 10 000 IU,total gonadotropin consumption and basal follicle stimulating hormone level were all>0.60,which indicated that the above indexes provided value for predicting OHSS after IVF-ET treatment.Using the above independent influencing factors,the nomogram prediction model was constructed,and the numerical value obtained by adding the risk factor scores was the probability of OHSS after IVF-ET treatment.The verification results showed that the C-index value of the calibration curve was 0.990,which indicated that the nomogram prediction model had good prediction energy efficiency.Conclusion A nomogram prediction model was constructed using independent risk factors for OHSS after IVF-ET treatment.Independent risk factors included:polycystic ovary syndrome,10 000 IU of hCG trigger injection,total gonadotropin usage,basal follicle stimulating hormone level is its protective factor.This model can directly predict the probability of OHSS after IVF-ET treatment,and provide theoretical support for subsequent treatment and nursing.
infertile patientsin vitro fertilization-embryo transferovarian hyperstimulation syndromerisk factorsprediction model construction
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