Abstract
The global economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience amidst a series of shocks,including the COVID-19 pandemic,geopolitical tensions,inflationary pressures,and monetary policy tightening.Despite heightened trade policy uncertainty fueled by escalating regional conflicts,international trade is on a gradual recovery path,with expectations for a slowdown in the decline of global investments.As inflation eases further,major central banks embark on rate cut cycles,and fiscal policies remain supportive,a slow yet steady economic recovery is projected.However,the interplay of short-term challenges and long-standing issues within the global economy highlights a clear lack of growth momentum,underscoring significant downside risks.Future outlook considerations include shifts in Federal Reserve policies,rapid adjustments in the global supply chain landscape,structural labor market challenges,the transformative impact of artificial intelligence sparking a new era of tech and industrial revolutions,diminishing influence of the World Trade Organization and more.These factors warrant careful monitoring.For 2025,the global economy is forecasted to navigate a complex path of subdued growth,with an estimated expansion rate of around 3.0％.Vigilance is crucial as intensified geopolitical unrest or escalated trade disputes could potentially drive the world economic growth rate even lower.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据