Abstract
On the demand side,in 2024,container transportation demand is experiencing the U.S.replenishment cycle,showing better-than-expected demand.The Red Sea crisis has further impacted supply,leading to an actual industry supply growth rate of 17％(Clarksons data),while the nominal supply growth rate stands at 11％.This results in a supply-demand gap of 6％,causing freight rates to quickly rise to the second highest level in history from their lowest point.On the supply side,in 2024,the global container fleet's nominal capacity will increase by 11％,but around 12％of this capacity has been lost due to ship deviations caused by the Red Sea crisis,significantly reducing supply pressure.In 2025,nominal capacity is expected to grow by about 6％,while demand is projected to increase by only 2.5％,indicating a potential supply-demand imbalance.As to the freight rates outlook,we believe that container ship freight rates will go up first and then become lower in 2025.On one hand,the U.S.replenishment cycle is expected to peak around the third quarter of 2025,providing demand support in the first half of the year.On the other hand,changes in U.S.tariff policy may disrupt the delivery rhythm of the supply chain,leading to market adjustments based on tariff fluctuations.This adds to the volatility of freight rates.Additionally,the complexity of the Red Sea crisis makes it even more challenging to predict the market for 2025.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据