Abstract
Looking Back at 2024,the international dry bulk shipping freight rate has significantly increased,with China's imports of iron ore,coal,and grain generally showing growth.The number of new bulk carrier deliveries has been relatively small,maintaining a low capacity growth rate.Looking ahead to 2025,market consensus indicates that overall performance will be lower than in 2024.China's iron ore imports are expected to increase slightly year-on-year in 2025.However,major iron ore producers like Australia and Brazil continue to release new production capacities,further increasing market supply pressure.On the coal front,Goldman Sachs expects the global coal balance to soften quarter by quarter due to reduced import demand and expanded supply.Specifically,weaker demand in developed markets is expected to offset growth in South and Southeast Asia,keeping global demand broadly flat outside China.Due to the impact of record coal inventories and domestic production growth,China's imports are expected to decline quarter by quarter from 2025.Goldman Sachs forecasts that international coal prices will continue to decline in 2025.Regarding food imports,volume remains uncertain,particularly impacted by trade relations between China and the United States.Moreover,a significant increase in new bulk carrier deliveries is expected to put pressure on the freight market in 2025.
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NSTL
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