Abstract
Despite the fastest growth in supply and fleet since 2010,the supply/demand balance tightened in 2024.Ship demand has increased as 90％of the capacity that normally transits the Suez Canal has instead been sailing via the Cape of Good Hope,significantly increasing both average sailing distance and ship demand.However,fleet expansion remains a concern once ships can return to normal routings.We estimate that fleet growth will increase supply in 2026 by 46％compared to 2019 before the contracting boom began.Cargo volumes are forecast to increase ship demand by 22％between 2019 and 2026.In its World Economic Outlook Update from October,the International Monetary Fund forecasts that the world economy will grow by 3.2％in 2025 and 3.3％in 2026,in line with the 3.2％estimated for 2024.We expect that ship demand growth will end at 18％～19％in 2024 and forecast growth of 3％～4％in 2025 followed by a fall of 5％～6％in 2026.The order book currently stands at 8.0m TEU and the order book to fleet ratio is 26％.Ships capable of using alternative fuels upon delivery make up 78％of the order book and another 10％are being readied for later conversion.Two-thirds of the ships that will be capable of using an alternative fuel upon delivery will use LNG and one-third will use methanol.
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