Establishment of a predictive model for the conversion of obese pregnant women to cesarean section due to failed vaginal trial labor
Objective To screen the influencing factors of the conversion of obese pregnant women to cesarean section due to failed vaginal trial labor,and to construct a predictive model.Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on 164 obese pregnant women admitted to Women and Children's Hospital,Xiamen University from January 2020 to December 2021.Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to screen the influencing factors of conversion to cesarean section and establish a predictive model.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow were used to test the predictive performance of the model.Results 20.1％of obese pregnant women experienced a conversion to cesarean section.Univariate analysis showed that pre-pregnancy body mass index(BMI),prenatal BMI,gravidity,parity,oxytocin-induced labor,fetal distress in utero,and macrosomia were associated with the conversion to cesarean section(P<0.05).Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that prenatal BMI and fetal distress in utero were independent risk factors for conversion to cesarean section(P<0.05).Parity was a protective factor(P<0.05).The area under the curve(AUC)was 0.797,with a 95％CI of 0.760-0.888,which had a good predictive value.The results of the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test showed that the model had a good degree of fit(P>0.05).Conclusion The predictive model constructed in this study has certain clinical practicality and can provide a basis for clinical medical staff to guide pregnant women to choose appropriate delivery methods.
ObesityFailed vaginal trial laborConversion to cesarean sectionPredictive model
万方数据
维普
