Objective To develop a risk prediction model for cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in patients under maintenance hemodialysis,and to provide a basis for the diagnosis and treatment of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in patients under maintenance hemodialysis.Methods A total of 100 patients who underwent hemodialysis in the Tai'an 88 Hospital from January 2019 to January 2022 were selected for the study.They were followed up for 2 years and the time of occurrence of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases was recorded.logistic model was established to predict the risk scores of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in patients under maintenance hemodialysis.The accuracy of the model was verified by ROC curve.Results A total of 100 patients were enrolled with 2 dropped out at follow up,and a total of 98 patients completed this study.In these patients,58 were males and 40 were females.At follow-up,a total of 27(27.55％)patients experienced coronary events(18 cases of unstable angina and 9 cases of acute myocardial infarction)and 23(23.47％)patients had cerebrovascular diseases.7(7.14％)patients died due to cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases.A total of 50 patients developed and 48 patients did not develop cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases,with 3 patients suffering from both cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases.Blood glucose,uric acid,low-density lipoprotein,history of hypertension,and primary disease were associated with the occurrence of cardiovascular events.In this study,we plotted a ROC curve using the presence of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases as the state variable and the score of the risk prediction model as the outcome variable.The area under the curve was 0.974,with a sensitivity of 95.8％,a specificity of 86.0％,95％CI of[0.944,1.000],and an optimal cutoff value of 0.606.Conclusion This model shows high sensitivity and specificity in the prediction of the occurrence of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in patients under hemodialysis.
关键词
血液透析/心脑血管疾病/风险预测/模型建立
Key words
Hemodialysis/Cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases/Risk prediction/Modeling
维普
万方数据