Mooring Fatigue Reliability Assessment Based on Tail-corrected Enhanced Monte Carlo Method
Aiming at the accuracy problem caused by special tail characteristics in the fatigue reliability analysis of offshore platform mooring systems,a Monte Carlo fatigue reliability method of mooring systems was presented based on extreme light tail characteristics of safety margin variables.The fatigue failure probability and safe service life were evaluated and assessed for mooring lines.The method quantitatively evaluates the tail characteristics of the safety margin by introducing the Weibull tail coefficient,correcting the classical enhanced Monte Carlo approach,and is applicable to safety margin scenarios with extreme light-tailed features.Through a case analysis of the mooring system of a semi-submersible platform in the South China Sea,the performance of the proposed method is compared with the classical EMC method and the Hermite model.The results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves higher reliability prediction accuracy and stability while effectively reducing the number of numerical simulations and time costs.This research can provide valuable guidance for the reliability design and maintenance of marine engineering structures.
enhanced Monte Carlo methodfatigue reliabilitytail behaviorWeibull tail-coefficient
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